Push or Fold?

[reecelights]

Party 10/1. 7 more hands at 50/100 level. Most have built stacks through suckouts and catching hands like 86. UTG is on the loose side and raises almost every hand he plays, but has raised with the likes of A5 and K9. MP is a calling station. BB is tighter and aggressive.

Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: desertgirl (2405)
Seat 4: gdurfor (1440)
Seat 6: PiedPiper (1445)
Seat 8: stangme (2020)
Seat 9: reecelights (690)
reecelights posts small blind (50)
desertgirl posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to reecelights [ Ts, As ]
gdurfor raises (300) to 300
PiedPiper calls (300)
stangme folds.

[SmileyEH]

This one is really close - I haven't played $10+1 in a while but at the $30 lvl I would probably fold in this spot...If blinds were going up next hand I might be inclined to push.

I don't think doing either will be wrong by much in this case.

-SmileyEH

[bweiser8311962]

you're talking half your stack on a 22 percent chance to hit a flush. And then another X percent for the straight chance. You've only put 50 into the pot so I'd fold. Pick a better spot. Live to fight another day.

[rjb03]

22% to hit a flush preflop? Hahaha.

[SmileyEH]

are you on crack?

-SmileyEH

[reecelights]

This post should probably go on the Probabilty Forum, but, oh well.

For many people's clarification...what are the odds of hitting a flush with suited cards? Assuming a push and A high.

I know 22% is the probablilty that the FIRST card on the flop is suited. (11/50)

I'm bad at math, but check my logic please. According to Super System, I know the chances of flopping 2 suited cards (the same as yours) are only 10.94%. The chances of hitting a four-flush with two cards to come are 34.97%. By this logic, you will hit a flush only 3.84% of the time.

According to Poker Calculator, AcTc will win by hitting a flush 6% of the time against a random hand.

How does one actually go about calculating odds for multiple cards to come? It's not as simple as multiplying by the number of cards to come, is it?

PS. According to Mike Caro, the odds of flopping a flush are 0.8%

[stupidsucker]

this is a fold I think. Put me in the situation and maybe I dont fold but...

If you push you are almost guaronteed a call from both players unless UTG reraises all in, and then you still face a possible 3way pot. The nice thing is if this happens you triple up and thats gooood. Chances are you are facing at least one other ace, and a possible pair.

I think you are better off waiting for the next few hands to go for a steal or for a better hand.

I would also fold AJ here probably would push with AQ, but I am not certain.