KQo Live at the Wynn <3

[shant]

The Best Casino on Earth - 8/16

I have been at the table for not very long so my image is guy who has a runny nose and raises good cards so far.

From the few orbits I've played, the SB in this hand is an old guy who is slighty loose and passive. The UTG+2 is a decent young Asian dude who plays decent and doesn't get out of line postflop, but his open-limping range is too wide.

Preflop: Some folds, UTG+2 limps, more folds to me in the CO and I raise K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], more folds and SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5 SB)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, I bet, SB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4.25 BB)
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, I call(?), SB calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7.25BB)
SB bets, UTG+2 raises, I'm like?

[private joker]

So "F*&amp;K live play" has become "F&amp;*K live play in Los Angeles?"

The Wynn does rule.

Anyway, I think the turn call is close but fine, given the gutshots and likely clean overcards (I'd dirty them up a bit in the case of KJ/QJ, but at least 4 outs for the 6 overcards, so 8 outs total or so), and as for the river -- ugh I hate it but my gut is telling me to fold.

Then again, my gut sucks at poker.

(By the way, I pay off online, but I fold live because live play tends to be a bit more passive, especially on the river where a flush-board is obvious).

[jason_t]

I'm dislike the turn call.

But the bigger question is the river. Since he's loose there are a lot of pair/flush draw combos he could have on the turn, but there are also a lot of two pair/etc. hands he could have here. So I call, reluctantly, but I do expect to be good ~20% of the time.

[BWebb]

I think a call is okay on the turn only because SB is passive and the chance of a checkraise is small. As for the river, I hate to fold (don't even know if I could) but I think you should. SB is passive, so he has a hand. Since he didn't wake up until the 10 hit, that made it. It could be a flush or it could be the same straight. The turn bet followed by river raise makes me think UTG has a flush and was semi-bluffing with something like 5-6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or maybe something bigger, like QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] not want you to take a free card with overs. You said he was loose preflop, but is he loose enough to limp with 5-6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? If not, I'd guess QJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I would fold the turn. Based on my estimate you have 7 pure outs here, which means you need pots odds of approx 6-1 to call, you are getting 5.25-1 to call and you are not closing the action. Implied odds are not much of a factor since you only have 3 outs to the nuts. I would estimate your implied odds to be zero, since many of your outs will cost you a bet just as much as it makes you a bet, and what little implied odds you do have from your 3 nut outs is probably negated in the long run by the fact that you are not closing the action, which means it will sometimes cost you 2BB to see this river. Given that you called the turn, I would fold the river. I cannot say that folding this river is correct, Im just telling you what i would do. The UTG+2 guy did donk the turn on the 3 of hearts which means he mightve had a pair/flushdraw type hand(Ah4h) or just a naked flush draw. His turn action combined with his river raise is very consistent with a made flush, and the SB could have a flush also.

[BWebb]

It all depends on how many outs you give yourself to make your decision on the turn. I'm re-reading King Yao's book and I'm trying to use DIPO more because I think it's a simple way to calculate pot odds. If you give yourself 7 outs, you have an easy call.

7 outs x 6.25 EPS = 43.75 &gt;
Non-outs = 39

However, if you discount your outs more down to 6, you now have a fold.

6 x 6.25 = 37.5 &lt;
Non-outs = 40

Of course, if you add 1/2 a BB because you are expecting SB to call more often than fold or raise then they are both calls. I think it's close enough to make it a call, as it will only be a small mistake.

On a side note, does the majority of posters use DIPO at the table?

[ QUOTE ]
It all depends on how many outs you give yourself to make your decision on the turn. I'm re-reading King Yao's book and I'm trying to use DIPO more because I think it's a simple way to calculate pot odds. If you give yourself 7 outs, you have an easy call.

7 outs x 6.25 EPS = 43.75 &gt;
Non-outs = 39

However, if you discount your outs more down to 6, you now have a fold.

6 x 6.25 = 37.5 &lt;
Non-outs = 40

Of course, if you add 1/2 a BB because you are expecting SB to call more often than fold or raise then they are both calls. I think it's close enough to make it a call, as it will only be a small mistake.

On a side note, does the majority of posters use DIPO at the table?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ive read that book too, and I would venture to say that 99% of all the posters here do not use DIPO. The DIPO calculations are simply not necessary. When I play poker, I estimate how many outs I have, I then figure out how much of an underdog I am compared to the pot odds/implied odds, and then I make my decision to call or fold. I think thats how most people do it. Based on my methods, if the hero has 7 pure outs he is not getting the odds to continue, I will admit though it is very close, and calling can only be a very small mistake at best. I think the crux of this hand is the river decision.

[SackUp]

Wow, I'm actually fairly shocked at some of the responses so far. When I first looked at the hand I thought the question on the river was b/w calling and a 3bet. But everyone is talking about a fold as the best option?!? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

So first off I think the Turn is close, but I don't mind the call.

River: SB donks his runner runner flush? I think he either hit his two pair with J10, J9, 109, etc. or hit his straight and doens't want it checked through.

As to utg+2 I expect to see a set. You think he is donking a FD on the turn? Seems odd to me. I think he doesn't want his TP, 2 pair or set checked through. Then he either hits two pair or still has a set on the river so he raises.

I just don't see how we are so concerned with the runner-runner flush when there are so many other options out there. Sure we might see a flush but I expect to be good here a ton wih the nut straight and only a flush beating us.

I'm calling at the least and consdering a 3bet.

[private joker]

Live players, especially in Vegas, don't raise straight and flush boards with 2 pair or a set. At least in my experience.

[lilkunta2]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling at the least and consdering a 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

you cant raise the river, but i agree that a call is in order