should this river be raised for value

[SenecaJim]

Hero has 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button. 5 limpers, hero calls, blinds stay.

Flop 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Checked to LP3 who bets, CO calls, hero calls, all others fold.


LP will lead out frequently on flop and turn with any piece so really don't know what he might have.
CO has been very loose, hit 2 flushes so far, one with J4s and one with T5s.

Turn is a blank. LP bets, CO calls, ( 7BB ) hero calls.

The river is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] LP bets , CO calls, hero ?

Call or raise here?

I would just call here. One of the poker maxims stated in almost every book on poker is: "You need a better hand to overcall with than to call with." Even though you made your straight, the flush also hit, so while your hand is good, it's not great.

LP could be betting with 2 pair, a set, or perhaps a flush draw that hit. Also, why would CO call the river after the 3-flush came? Do you think he'd call down with just a pair? If CO did make his flush, would he raise the river, or just call?

If you were heads-up and LP bet, I would think about a value-raise. However, since there has already been a bet and call, I think calling here is the best option.

I'd swear and call.

[Nick Royale]

I can't see how the 2 earlier posters are able to put LP on a flush. LP seem to be able to bet many hands, the board is scary but he has no reason to believe anyone holds a 5 and a flushdraw completing won't shouldn't make him not valuebetting sets, overpairs or 2-pairs (even though 2-pairs isn't likely). We have no reason to believe CO will call with a low flush.

Given the reads and the way in which the hand played out, I'd have a difficult time not raising here. I think it's fairly likely we're ahead here, and we shouldn't allow the flush possibility to deter us from value raising.

You only need to be good around 33% of the time to justify raising. I think you definitely satisfy this requirement.

I dont think you should worry about CO because if he has you beat with a flush or a 7-5 he would most certainly raise.

Sometimes LP might have you beat though but i still think that a raise is good here because if youre reraised you could fold and if youre not youre probably gonna get 2 callers since peaple have a trouble folding to just 1 extra bet when they have invested much in a pot.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the reads and the way in which the hand played out, I'd have a difficult time not raising here. I think it's fairly likely we're ahead here, and we shouldn't allow the flush possibility to deter us from value raising.

You only need to be good around 33% of the time to justify raising. I think you definitely satisfy this requirement.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like raising, but this is not true. A player can fold when we raise and we'll often get 3-betted by a flush, but not a worse hand.

This is an intersting hand. My first instict is to just call. I have a bet and an overcall. I am generally much more likely to raise if heads up. I do think that a raise here might be great tho' IF IT FOLDS A PLAYER WITH A 5 that would chop my pot, especially since LP looks like he is betting a made hand and overcall didn't raise.

YES, Value bet. If LP was calling the whole way and came alive at the end I would just call.

Wow, i actually changed my mind.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Given the reads and the way in which the hand played out, I'd have a difficult time not raising here. I think it's fairly likely we're ahead here, and we shouldn't allow the flush possibility to deter us from value raising.

You only need to be good around 33% of the time to justify raising. I think you definitely satisfy this requirement.

[/ QUOTE ]


I like raising, but this is not true. A player can fold when we raise and we'll often get 3-betted by a flush, but not a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, as TOP suggests you should allow 5% or so overlay for this possibility. I kinda thought that was implied when I said "around 33%", but in hindsight it was ambiguous.

Other than that, I think the estimate is fine. We're risking 1BB to potentially win 2. While raising obviously cost 2BBs, I consider 1BB to be a sunk cost because we're committing a single BB when we decide to overcall. Therefore, that bet is committed to the pot regardless.

As you've mentioned, you may also consider the situation to be laying odds of 2-to-2, because you'll likely only gain 2BBs when ahead, and pay 2BBs (the initial raise + calling the 3-bet) when behind and face a 3-bet