#1
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Add this to the FAQ?
I answered this question a few times this week; I think people are curious enough about it to justify putting it in.
Odds of m OOTM in a row OOTM = 1 - ITM Odds of OOTM all of one specific set of m SnGs = OOTM^m Now, in a set of N games where N > m, the number of sets of m is N + 1 - m (verify this for yourself with numbers). Thus, the odds of having at least one streak of m OOTM in a row in a set of N games is just: 1 - (1-OOTM^m)^(N+1-m). So, with 40% ROI for 1000 SnGs, the odds of one streak of 15 OOTMs is 37%. For 2k, it's 99.99%. A rough approximation for eyeballing this is: N * OOTM^m. This (much) rougher formula gives 47% for the odds of a streak of 15 OOTM in 1k SnGs and 94% for 2k. (Note that it gives 141% on 3k. That's why the other formula's better.) |
#3
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
It's a great idea. I found it very useful. But you should fix up that small mistake first.
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#4
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
Lori - Ouch! There are numbers and equations on your link. I am very distressed about it all now.
NoMathMcSlack |
#5
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
[ QUOTE ]
It's a great idea. I found it very useful. But you should fix up that small mistake first. [/ QUOTE ] Clarify please? |
#6
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
Ignore those and scroll down to the calculator [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Lori |
#8
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
[ QUOTE ]
Clarify please? [/ QUOTE ] A set of 2k gives a 60% or so OOTM 15 in a row, 20k would give 99.99% chance of OOTM 15 in a row. |
#9
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
Also the 40% ROI part is meant to say ITM, right?
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#10
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Re: Add this to the FAQ?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Clarify please? [/ QUOTE ] A set of 2k gives a 60% or so OOTM 15 in a row, 20k would give 99.99% chance of OOTM 15 in a row. [/ QUOTE ] Jeeze. Dumb and fixed. I'm such a math geek that I don't even stop to think about what numbers mean any more--I just crunch them. |
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