Hat trick on the turn

[winky51]

I have pulled this trick several times and almost everytime it is successful. I was wondering if any of you do it.

Say you are on the button and raise with a nice raising hand vs 3-4 callers. The flop comes and completely misses you and in fact looks like it would help any of the limpers. All check because they are wimps and you check because there are so many limpers that you can't possibly be ahead by the board.

The board pairs the 3 and everyone checks again. now I bet immidiately and they all fold. I usually make a very quick check on the flop that looks real suspicious and quick bet te turn. They all delay in their thinking but eventually fold like I was trapping with top set. It seems to work most of the time. I am sure these fish are holding marginal hands that have me beat but because they fear that BIG TRAP they fold. But the board has to be just so to pull this off.

I see this done when a fish is trying to trap you. They limp you raise, the call. Flop comes they check you bet then call calmly. Then turn comes REAL dangerous and you missed completely with 4 cards out fish checks, you check beacuse you are sure you are behind.... River comes and the fish immidiatly bets because he missed check raising you with a set on the turn.

Thoughts?

[SeaEagle]

I'm having a hard time envisioning what a "just so" board means in this case. In your example, you say "the board pairs the 3" in which case fish are highly unlikely to fold if they have any pair, since they'll think their J8 on the T83-3 board is maybe winning. What kind of board are you talking about that "looks like it would help any of the limpers"?

Basically, I think if you get all 3-4 opponents to fold, then it's because none of them caught a piece of the flop and of course didn't catch on the turn either.

Also, I think your idea of a "fast check" followed by a "fast bet" isn't very valuable. Nobody, especially fish, is going to be worried that you're trapping them by checking through a 4- or 5- way flop so you can bet the turn.

[tetonpete]

sounds to me like they all fold because you have the best hand with AQ or something. Incidentally, you probably get 3 callers on the flop, because of the smaller bet and the fact that there are two cards to come. The larger bet on the turn cuts down the odds for eveyone to draw to a pair, so that may help the odss of taking down the pot. But I think you just got lucky and no one made a pair. Won't happen often in a 5 handed pot

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I have pulled this trick several times and almost everytime it is successful.

[/ QUOTE ]
Quantify "several" and "almost"...

[tetonpete]

that's pretty funny

[winky51]

Ok in other words I am not doing it on with AsKs on a board of 7h8h9c because I know I will get callers. The board needs to be a certain way for me to pull it off.

It works most of the time which means it is profitable since I am risking 1 BB to win 3-4 BBs. If it just worked 1/3 the time its profitable.

Thats what i mean by almost and most

[winky51]

Naw 5 handed U don't try it. 3-4 handed I do. of couse 2 I do unless the board is a total wash with a nasty draw and 2 callers no suits.

[winky51]

The board depends on who calls, and it has to be the type of players that are always looking for the trap and to avoid it. We will take for example 3 players that are not super calling stations but not good either. They are low risk players that are generally weak tight. They all check twice on a board of Q852 rainbow.

Since the pot is small and I have position I can make assumptions about their hands by everyone NOT betting the turn. If I have a super calling station anywhere in there I probably won't bet as no matter what because him auto calling will induce others to call also because now the pot gets larger. But if the players are of reasonable intelligence then I know someone in later position on the turn might bet the board with a draw, an 8, or a 5. Since none did I represent that I slowplayed a set especially on a borken board like that on the flop. Most of the time I get 1-2 players thinking hard about calling then fold. Or if I smell a weak player making a value bet with some small pair or draw that is capable of folding or checking the river and is not a calling station I might raise with ace high.

These situations are very rare but I have been in them around a 30 times or so times during my last 2 years.

But recently (this month) I was able to pull it off 4 times in a row and I got reminded of this. So I posted the questions.

I read players well what can I say. I can smell weakness. I just wish I listened to my instincts more, they are right 95% of the time.

And I think you are not giving players some credit. Even fish can subconsciously notice certain timing and betting patterns of players. They can identify when someone is trying to trap, slowplay, or bluff. Not all but more than you think. Instincts come from seeing a pattern so many times that your mind registers it subconsciously and applies the knowledge later. If a fish plays a lot he can develope some skills like this. I am just trying to use their instincts against them.

I have had times when playing 4 tables that I was delayed in a decision at table C while playing a hand on table A. The opponent on table C took my delay as weakness and kept being aggressive. Of course the reason he did is because by accident my betting timing and pattern changed for that hand, but not because I was thinking but because I was busy. Thus the player misread my play and took that as a sign of weakness and pressed a losing hand anyways.

I wanted to know if others do this also online and see if there were other little tricks anyone knew about. Other players teach me little things all the time I use in poker.

Most players online are pretty much ABC and adjust to others by their GT+. Thats fine for 3/6 2/4 even 5/10. Maybe these little signs are not apparent to them.

Poker Mentor (Dan) is an associate of mine. He plays better poker than I do. His analytical skills and math skills are far superior than mine, but he can't smell out a bluff to save his life. he plays based on math and analysis not player tells. His tell skills are weak in my opinion. He's a difference player. Thinks my reads are crazy even though I am right most of the time.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Mentor (Dan) is an associate of mine. He plays better poker than I do. His analytical skills and math skills are far superior than mine, but he can't smell out a bluff to save his life. he plays based on math and analysis not player tells. His tell skills are weak in my opinion. He's a difference player. Thinks my reads are crazy even though I am right most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given that Poker Mentor plays "better poker than [you]" shouldn't you deduce that math/analytical skills are significantly more important than instincts?

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Thinks my reads are crazy even though I am right most of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is the entire crux of your post. Basically, you are asking "should I make low percentage plays because I can smell weakness so well?"

Personally, I can't answer that. I don't smell weakness particularly well, so I play like Mentor Dan. I don't recommend that Mentor Dan or myself make plays based on our instincts. Yours are apparently better honed than ours though, so maybe these plays are good for you.

Incidentally, in the example you gave (rainbow board of Q852 that was checked around on both the flop and turn), I'm willing to give you good odds that nobody had anything better than a pair of 2s.

I'm also wondering if Q85 rainbow is a flop that likely would have helped your opponents, what are the possible flops that don't help your opponents? Maybe my instincts are better than I think, because I bluff into a ragged flop like that against 3 or 4 opponents a heck of a lot more than 4 times a month and, yes, it's profitable for me too.