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#1
11-08-2005, 01:12 PM
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When you don\'t want overcalls.
After playing and talking poker a lot this weekend against a lot of players better than me I decided it's time to work on my game. I'm also clearing an old unused bonus at Pokerstars.
Stars $5/10. 10-handed. Folded to the CO who has 3.1BB left. He raises. I 3-bet AKo. Unknown SB who hasn't played badly enough to stick out in my mind calls 2.7 cold. BB folds. CO calls. The flop is JJ5r. Checked to me, I bet. SB calls. CO calls. The turn is a 3 bringing a flush draw. SB checks, CO checks, and I check. The river is a 6 completing the flush draw. I have the Ace of this flush draw. The SB checks, CO bets, and I raise. 
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#2
11-08-2005, 01:20 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
So after CO's river bet, he's effectively all in and sb can call 2 cold closing the action?
Since he called 3 bets PF, what do you think he's folding that beats you? From my perspective, your raise smells fishy and I wouldn't be folding a PP after the turn was checked around.
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#3
11-08-2005, 01:21 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
[ QUOTE ]
Since he called 3 bets PF, what do you think he's folding that beats you? [/ QUOTE ] A pair. [ QUOTE ] your raise smells fishy and I wouldn't be folding a PP after the turn was checked around. [/ QUOTE ] Indeed, but villan /= you.
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#4
11-08-2005, 01:23 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
[ QUOTE ]
So after CO's river bet, he's effectively all in and sb can call 2 cold closing the action? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. He is all in and SB would have to call two cold here.
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#6
11-08-2005, 01:31 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
The river raise is interesting indeed.
My first question is why you are not betting the turn? Are you putting SB on a PP that he is not folding? B/c I think many players might open up their blind protecting hands when a short stack opens from the CO and a TAG makes an isolation 3bet. Sure you have PP but hands like AQ, AJ, A10, and KQ may all be in his range and maybe more. The river raise is money if you can get the PP to fold, but you also stand getting 3bet or called if sb missed his c/r on the turn. Looks like a sure bluff after your turn check and sb should be calling with most PP, but who knows. I'd bet the turn and probably fold to a c/r here.
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#7
11-08-2005, 01:39 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
This is an interesting hand. I really think you're beating the SB most of the time here--it seems like a pocket pair would at least bet the river if not bet somewhere before that. At party I have a feeling your raise would draw a ton of suspicion. It makes sense because if you really want to win more bets you're more likely to do it by just calling. So I think you will probably get called a good percentage of the time here by SB out of the time the SB has a better hand.
I've never played on PokerStars so the atmosphere might be totally different, but as you know at partypoker (esp at 5/10 and up imo) the atmosphere reeks of distrust. I would probably just call the river and hope this isn't one of those times the SB does have a PP (and also hope this isn't one of the times CO has a PP). To use a more mathematical perspective, you're getting about 7.5-1 on this raise. But you need a threeway parlay (I think that's the word)--you need CO to have aworse hand than yours, you need SB to have a better hand than yours and you need SB to fold that hand. Maybe you have CO beat 75% of the time, SB has a better hand than yours 33% of the time and will fold that hand 75% of the time. So .75*.33*.75 = ~0.19. And you need 1/8.5, or 0.12 for the play to be breakeven. But those numbers are just shots in the dark so who knows. I would have bet the turn, would definitely be interested in hearing your analysis of why you didn't.
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#8
11-08-2005, 01:49 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
[ QUOTE ]
But you need a threeway parlay (I think that's the word)--you need CO to have aworse hand than yours, you need SB to have a better hand than yours and you need SB to fold that hand. [/ QUOTE ] CO is all in. So the value of the raise is completely dependent on sb's reaction to it. Whether you're currently beating CO is immaterial.
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#9
11-08-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] But you need a threeway parlay (I think that's the word)--you need CO to have aworse hand than yours, you need SB to have a better hand than yours and you need SB to fold that hand. [/ QUOTE ] CO is all in. So the value of the raise is completely dependent on sb's reaction to it. Whether you're currently beating CO is immaterial. [/ QUOTE ] The raise does us no good if SB folds and CO has a hand that beats us anyway. That portion of the time the raise is dead, its expected value is very close to zero (every once in a while SB will coldcall two bets with a hand we beat while at the same time the CO has us beat, so the value is not quite zero but extremely close). So we can examine the problem from the perspective, if CO has us beat N% of the time then N% of the raise is dead.
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#10
11-08-2005, 02:27 PM
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Re: When you don\'t want overcalls.
[ QUOTE ]
The raise does us no good if SB folds and CO has a hand that beats us anyway. That portion of the time the raise is dead, its expected value is very close to zero (every once in a while SB will coldcall two bets with a hand we beat while at the same time the CO has us beat, so the value is not quite zero but extremely close). [/ QUOTE ] Huh? Expected value is very close 0? Not -2BB? And what does it matter if SB calls 2 cold with a hand we beat when we're not ahead of CO? (assuming CO won't fold) This post really confuses me.
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