Folding AA here?

[JohnFR]

Wow keem, we had the same thought at the same time, I posted a post then came back and read the new posts, and saw yours.
John

[Steve Chase]

[ QUOTE ]

You are currently 92.5% to qualify, and you will remain as such if you fold. Obviously you are 0% to qualify if you call and lose. This isn't exactly accurate, but let's assume that you're 100% to qualify if you call and win.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post. Thank you. I think the bad assumption here is
"You are currently 92.5% to qualify, and you will remain as such if you fold."
Your percetage to quality depend on your chip count, if you fold too much, your chip counts will decrease by blinds and antes. Your percentage to quality will not be the same.

[glengarry]

I agree, good analysis. Isn't the general question: are your chances of winning the hand greater than your chances of finishing top 4 if you fold? So if you conservatively put him on AA or KK, you figure to lose approx. 20-22% of the time. If you think you have <78% chance to finish top 4 if you fold, then call.

Assuming equal playing skill, your chance of finishing top 4 must be >80%? For one, if all 6 players had equal stacks and equal playing skill, or a completely random calculation, you would have a 67% chance to finish top 4. Safe to assume that having 4x the short stacks adds at least 13% to that.

Second, (clearly your post about the blinds figures into this liberally assume each short stack has a 20% chance to knock one of the big stacks out of the top 4. Let's also assume that for each short stack that gets back in, each large stack has an equal chance to get knocked out. So your chance of top 4 is approx. 90%. Fold.

[JohnFR]

having even 1 bad big stack(which apparently we have after we see this guy push), means there is a decent chance the short stacks will get doubled up by a loose push or call by a big stack. So I think that the calculations done by Harrington are 100% nullified when taking into account a bad playing big stack

[glengarry]

Very good point. I forgot my first reaction, which was "what the h is that guy doing?"

Don't you think your chance of finishing top 4 is still >80%? How high?

Related question: what is the correct strategy for the 4 big stacks here? Play 8 cards versus 4 (or 2)? Wait for a big hand versus a small stack all-in? Wait for the 2 small stacks to get in against each other [troublemsome but real possibility]?

[nightlyraver]

I was only "chirping 'nope!'" to bump the post in all honesty. See my other post, "My Two Cents", for my complete take on the issue.

[gobboboy]

If you win this hand, which by averages you probably have an 85% of doing, you can literally go home and wait for someone to call you that you won a seat. I would call in a heartbeat. You're not behind and you're getting your money in with the best hand in poker. You cannot do any better. Taking stupid risks is what keeps people behind.

[TheBlueMonster]

you really could just wait until the little guys get blinded to death....

[nightlyraver]

Calling here is "taking a stupid risk." True, you are between 80% and 92% to win. However, you are already 92.5% to qualify. In the best case situation, you are only even money.

[gobboboy]

Saying you are 92.5% to qualify is just wrong. They have the stacks have 10 BB's each, more than enough to pose a threat and wait for a good hand. Once they double up they can wait even longer.