Raise flush on river when opponent is unconcerned?

[Josh W]

I was playing in a fairly tough (especially for LA standards) 15-30 a couple nights ago. The game is full of fairly tight aggressive players. There is no other game going (well, a 25-50 that I'm on the list for), and I'm just going to put in 2 more hours, and any other casino that I'd consider playing at is 20 miles away. Because of the fairly predictable nature of my opponents, I still hold a small edge.

But the game is getting worse and worse with time. Raise and take the blinds, or get called by the BB, and a flop bet wins it. Chop 3 hands in a row, then pay time. Blech.

So, to keep from being too predictable, I raise UTG+1 w/ 53s. I feel that there is only about a 15% chance of this hand going to showdown, and if it does, it's tremendous advertising. I'll expand on this later if somebody would like.

Well, both blinds call. They are both moderately straightforward, and two of the looser (although by no means "loose") players at the table.

Flop comes 944, two spades. Checked to me, I bet, thinking I'll take it down here, and QJ and the like will surely fold. Well, they both call. Bummer.

Turn is an offsuit deuce. SB checks, BB bets.

Here I quickly thought that he may have decided "I'll bet the turn if no A or K comes, to push him off of AK". That's not an uncommon move at all. So I pause for a second (as if I had AA, pretending to think to myself "pop him here or on the river?"). SB mucks, and BB threebets.

Bummeroonie.

Maybe that word has two "r"'s. Dunno.

The hand that I was most afraid of here was 22. But with a plethora of potential outs, I call.

River brings the 8s, completing my flush (the ever popular 98543 flush). BB doesn't look even a tiny bit fazed....no concern by him at all, as he fires out.

I just call.

Comments? Results to follow...but I'm wondering...is it always necessary to post results?

Josh

[Josh W]

BB turns over 54h. If i bet the river, I get paid off. Does this make it a bad call (I really don't know...that's not a rhetorical question).

My thoughts were...if I did my job on the turn, he puts me on an overpair. So if I raise, he'd be pretty okay to threebet the river, although that would be toughish for him to do. This, in turn, means that I'd need to call a river threebet everytime.

So I'd sorta be risking 2 bets to win 1. Sometimes I'd be risking 2 to win 2, and if he's on a naked bluff (very unlikely), I'm risking 2 to win 1. Or I can call, risking 1 to win 1.

I didn't think at the time (though I may be persuaded) that there was a noticeable EV increase by raising the river, but there is obviously a variance increase....And variance is the devil.

Josh

[Ulysses]

If i bet the river, I get paid off.

Maybe. But you called a turn 3-bet and raised a paired flush board on the river. I have a number of strong opponents that will muck trips in that situation.

You said this opponent was tough enough to 3-bet in this siutation. If so, I think he's tough enough to muck his hand as well.

Anyway, I think raising and calling are both fine in this situation.

[mike l.]

"I didn't think at the time (though I may be persuaded) that there was a noticeable EV increase by raising the river, but there is obviously a variance increase....And variance is the devil."

ah but EV is god, so bow down sucka.

seriously though i dont think you have to call a 3 bet on the river, only a real psycho aggro pusher is gonna think trips is still good on that board after he's shown all that strength and yet youre still pushing back. ya see?

[elysium]

hi josh w
you can't raise in with the 53s. i know that hfap says it's o.k.; you can also reraise for the free-card. but if you read hfap thoroughly, you would understand that you must adjust as you move up. the players you're playing will not loosen when you showdown the 53. when you come firing out with KK UTG they'll fold. they will know you have the KK. now, in a low limit game against tourists from maude's sewing circle coming in for fun and knits, yea, hfap says open raise with the 53, henrietta will give you action all night long. but about the L.A. 15-30 game, mr.d.s. says in the very beginning,"we're not language experts" meaning that it's possible that they may communicate something under the erroneous assumption that you are capable of differentiating when and when not to use a particular strategy. and i don't have hfap in front of me, but no way does anyone tell you to open raise with 53 in a tough aggressive L.A. game, unless you're mike l. but how do you put that in writing? how does d.s. or m.m. or r.z. express that? if you read hfap thoroughly, you'd know that your raise in with 53 tells the L.A. crowd not to call you when you fire out from UTG for at least the next hour or two. they will begin reading you for boredom. that's what your play tells the experienced players to start doing. when josh w. begins to show tells like he's getting bored, reraise him from UTG, but don't start looking for those tells for about an hour, maybe two. between now and then, when he comes in, fold.

now, mike l. will know to fire again with 43s from UTG to get the fold because he just showed that he's tightening because he just showed down 53s. mike knows when he fires into these guys with 43s, they're going to fold. but if mike were playing the sewing circle, he would never do that because henrietta will have the foresight to reraise him. and if hfap attempted to clarify when and when not to raise from UTG with 53s, it would necessarily have to be hfapb requiring heavy duty shelving. the answer would be listed under sec. mike l./ hold em for advanced players brittanica. hfap is not the library of arts and tommy angelo. you've got to know this.

[mikelow]

Josh, I hope you didn't run into 22. I like your play of this hand. With a game this tight (my last poker session was at the Hustler--the closest cardroom to where I work), you got to
mix it up.

[mike l.]

havent looked at the result, but my river play is raise. did you know you can fold to a 3 bet here safely? he has to put you on the flush or 9s full when you raise the river and that will slow him down with better and worse hands alike. im putting the guy on A4 or something and figuring he figures you for the overpair you tried to represent through the whole hand. hope im right. time to go look.

nice post btw. you really should stoop down to going over to hp though when hustler stinks. great great games. i know youre in it for the love of the game so i really think youd enjoy yourself over there with all those fishies.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

given your elaborate reasoning up to the point of the river...

Raise him.

Advertising.

If you get three-bet, you're screwed. But the advertising value *might* even be worth the extra BB to call.

al