Preflop Aggression: More or Less Luck?

[sledghammer]

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Depending on the situation, raising can either lower or increase the 'luck' factor. Like Andyfox says, if it's used to thin the field and increase your chance of winning a pot (albeit a smaller pot), it can reduce your variance.

But if you're raising AJs in the BB after 7 people have limped in, then it will have the opposite effect on your variance.

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I challenge this assertion. When you raise AJs in the BB after 7 people limp in you have an equity edge. As your equity increases, your variance isn't as negative. For example win rate 5, variance 10 = swings from -5 to 15. win rate 15, variance 10 = swings from 5 to 25. This is just an example of how increasing your win rate makes your variance less noticable, these numbers do not represent anything real.

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This is incorrect, because pot equity is a proportion of the pot, not a fixed number. For example, if your equity is .4, the variance will be .4*(1-.4), or .24. Playing an 8SB pot preflop, where you have .4 equity, has EV of 2.2SBs[3.2 pot share -1sb invested], with a Variance of 1.92SBs. Doubling the pot by raising doubles your expected value, to 4.4SBs, but also doubles your variance, to 2.84SBs.