bottom set, slow play flop, fold river ?

[cbloom]

I'm set-mining at $100 NL. Villain is MP2 - on the loose side preflop (VPIP 40), and thinks two pair is a good all-in hand postflop, but can fold TPTK. I know a lot of people are going to complain about me not raising the flop, but if you do please say exactly why.

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($192.20)
UTG ($62.63)
UTG+1 ($106.80)
MP1 ($77.65)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($179.60)</font>
CO ($91.95)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($111.85)</font>
SB ($35.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $7</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $7, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds.

(I just call the flop because there are no draws, normally I would raise solid here)

Turn: ($22) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, MP2 calls $17.

River: ($70) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

MP2 checks. Hero ?

Definitely can't FOLD river when you could easily check behind (mistake in post??). I would expect your hand to be good most of the time here and I would value bet the river.

[cbloom]

Yeah, I deleted some action to leave the question more open - so do you check behind on the river? And if you bet, say $30-35 or so, and he moves in, do you call? (about $40 more) What do you put him on?

[Zarathustra888]

Maybe he has 67[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],A8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 55,88? Small turn bet is fishy, don't know what to make of that.

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I deleted some action to leave the question more open - so do you check behind on the river? And if you bet, say $30-35 or so, and he moves in, do you call? (about $40 more) What do you put him on?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think I check behind here. I would probably bet 30-45 on the river. I don't think I could fold to his push, so maybe there is a better way to play it??

I think I check behind on this river. With no raise pre-flop its unlikely he has an overpair and his re-raise/call on the flop means at a minimum he has A8.
His 7 dollar bet and 17 dollar call on the turn makes me think he could have A8clubs. I see more hands beating us making a river call then not. If he re-raises all in on the river it would be hard to get away from and I dont see what he could have that we would beat. JMO

This is a check behind. The other hand you will see fairly often at showdown here is the busted OESD which will either fold to your river value bet (which gains you nothing) or might induce an all-in bluff repping the flush which puts you to a tough decision. There are just too few potential villainous holdings that you are ahead of AND which will only flat call for this RVB to be +EV.