Bottom 2 and Flush Draw on the turn

Ryan11 · #1 12-05-2005, 05:21 PM

UTG: 27/15.8/2.77
SB: no stats but appears to be a donkey

Should I be 3 betting this turn?

Party Poker 10.00/20.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, SB calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, SB calls.

Turn: (9.00 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 15.00 BB.

Rubeskies · #2 12-05-2005, 05:41 PM

I wouldn't 3-bet the turn but I would checkraise the river. It doesn't look at all like you had a flush draw or an 8 and he obviously has a very strong hand that he'll most likely value bet.

This is one of the reasons I don't 3-bet the turn, so I can check/raise when I hit and get to a cheaper showdown when I don't.

Ryan11 · #3 12-05-2005, 06:12 PM

I didnt think he'd bet that river. That 9c is a terrible card for his hand. Any 8, KJ have straights and any flush draw got there

Spicymoose · #4 12-05-2005, 06:14 PM

I don't think you should 3-bet the turn after showing that much strengh earlier. I also don't like check/raising the river, because he may get scared of that scare card.

Rubeskies · #5 12-05-2005, 06:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didnt think he'd bet that river. That 9c is a terrible card for his hand. Any 8, KJ have straights and any flush draw got there

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes but your hand range doesn't look at all like you have any of those hands. A pair of 6s with the flush draw is pretty much the only hand he is really afraid of there, and maybe an overplayed Q8. Your actions make it look like you have a pair or weak 2pair.

He raises UTG, 3-bets the flop and still raises the turn after you cap and bet into 2 opponets.

His hand range to me is something like: QTs, QQ, TT, or possibly 66. AA, KK, AQ and KQ are all possibilities but I think they need to be discounted greatly because if he is a TAG he's probably realized you aren't nuts.

If I'm in his position I value bet QQ,TT and 66 100% of the time here and I think QTs most of the time too because you played it fast and hard like top pair or even 2p because your hand range is wide enough to include T6s, QT and Q6s, especially when you bet again on the turn.

If I had AA or KK I would be scared I'm not sure whether I would value bet or not. But sometimes he will, maybe he doesn't see the 4 card straight or simply doesn't think you played it like a draw (which I don't think you did).

But you gain 2 100% of the time when he has a set, and I think he probably still calls when he has QT. AA and KK or even AQ and KQ should fold against you, but who knows if he has the ability to lay it down.

I think because his 1 pair hands need to be discounted so greatly and the fact that he'll value bet the other ones a very high % of the time, I think the check/raise is good. I think it is reasonably close though.