How many bets?

[jgorham]

Commerce 20/40. The villain in this hand seems completely irrational. In a prior hand, he limped LP, I raised 99, a few called, he 3bet and I capped. He capped the flop of J 9 3, capped the turn (A), and bet the river 7(I wussed out at this point). He turned over 78s. He is drinking heavily, and generally looks to be trying to get rid of his money to anyone who wants to take it.

As for the hand: A tight UTG raises, LAG (Lee) calls in the SB, I call QJs in the BB. Flop comes J34 (2 diamonds), Lee and I check, then both checkraise UTG. He folds and leaves Lee and I heads up. Lee caps, and I call.

The turn is the Kc. Lee bets, I raise. He 3bets, I 4bet, he 5bets. How many bets do I go here? I have him covered, he probably has 15 more big bets sitting in front of him.

More appropriately, how do I go about determining how many bets I should put in? If he has a random hand, obviously I want to keep pumping. But I feel as if the odds of him having a purely random hand decrease with each bet (I was envisioning a scale with random on one hand, monster on the other, and each bet moved the bar from the left to the right). The problem is I don't know how many bets = strong hand, or if there is any differentiation in his drunk mind. Any thoughts?

[DpR]

You want to put in 15 more BBs with second pair, ok kicker with a gut shot?

[jason_t]

Do you have a flush draw?

[jgorham]

I definitely want to put in 15 bets if he would put in 14 with a worse hand. But the point is, if 2 bets is not enough, and 15 is too many, how do I figure out where to stop?

[jgorham]

Sorry Jason - meant to post I had QsJs, rather than QJs.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
I definitely want to put in 15 bets if he would put in 14 with a worse hand. But the point is, if 2 bets is not enough, and 15 is too many, how do I figure out where to stop?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO you have put in enough bets already, call down.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry Jason - meant to post I had QsJs, rather than QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Call down.