Can This Be Right?

[Lestat]

Thanks Paluka. So I seem to be right that most good/winning players fold less than 40%. The question is, is it possible to fold a higher percentage of time without giving up much?

Again, I think I need to know what that 52% is entailing. If he's betting most rivers and folding mainly his busts and very bad hands, then 52% doesn't seem too out of line. However, if this 52% figure is due to him folding when he's NOT in the lead and/or if he's check/folding, then clearly it would be a problem. What do you think?

IronFly wants to know what his fold percentages are. I'll have to call him and post those. I'm interested because I also felt I was folding the river too much (43%). When I saw his stats I was floored. Thanks for your time.

[Lestat]

Fold:

pf - 79.99

flop - 17.24

turn - 13.10

river - 13.57

But his aggression stats seem off the charts (hope he won't be pissed I'm posting this -lol)....


Agression:

pf - 1.39

flop - 3.31

turn - 4.72

river - 3.35

His fold percentages aren't TOO far off from mine, but his aggression factors (especially the river) is WAY higher than mine!

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold:

pf - 79.99

flop - 17.24

turn - 13.10

river - 13.57

But his aggression stats seem off the charts (hope he won't be pissed I'm posting this -lol)....


Agression:

pf - 1.39

flop - 3.31

turn - 4.72

river - 3.35

His fold percentages aren't TOO far off from mine, but his aggression factors (especially the river) is WAY higher than mine!

[/ QUOTE ]

Those aggression stats are sick. My river aggression is <2. He is betting or raising the river over 75% of the time (that he doesnt fold). I think with those stats 50% + makes a lot of sense.....

[bicyclekick]

wow I feel like I've been folding a lot more lately (and my sd stats are 3% less going to sd and 3% higher winning or something than they were before. I can't imagine how low my % was before.

aggression by streets:
2.8
2.1
1.5

Edit and my fold to river bet was 31%

[Lestat]

Wow are you good! I had to have him read me all the river stats and you're correct (except that it's +75% of the time he doesn't fold OR CHECK the river). I could never have figured that out from the I gave (bad at math).

But total post-flop aggr. is just under 3.7 and I've seen higher. Like I said, I've watched him play online (and many times live), and he's not a total maniac. And I don't think I've ever seen him make a "weak" fold on the river. It sure seems like he just folds when he's supposed to and clearly beat. But I've also seen him pick off some incredible bluffs.

That's why these stats in PT are so dangerous for someone like me. I don't really understand how all these numbers are derived. I think there are many underlying factors and I have to be careful when trying to match other people's numbers. There is more than one way to skin a cat and if I simply start folding more on the river (given my style of play), it could adversely affect my game, even though it seems correct for my friend and I know for a fact he is an extremely strong player.

[Lestat]

Thanks for the input. Your aggr. stats seem normal. I'm slightly higher on the turn and river, but I don't think that's important.

[baronzeus]

2.31, 1.91, 1.52. fold to river bet 31.54%

this is over a 40K hand sample at party 30/60.

wtsd 37.79 w$sd 52.24

ive been playing mostly shorthanded though, 6.36 players on average, not sure how it affects my #s. my vpip is definitely higher (26.24/18.97) so im sure that lowers my aggression.

[Tommy Angelo]

I don't think a 50% river-fold percentage is inherently bad. And I'd say the same about many other stats that seem extreme. Everything depends on everything.

Here's something along the same lines, something I've felt for a couple years now: I think I can win at limit hold'em without ever raising on the turn.

The conditions would be:

1) No rake or tips (or else the amount of the rake and tips is added back to my score).

2) I have total control over game selection, seat selection, and quitting.

3) As to duration, I guess a few thousands hours would be enough to determine if the feat was accomplished.

4) The penalty for failure would have to be death by torture.

I just realized how much fun unfalsifyable claims are! I can see why they are so popular.


Tommy

[stoxtrader]

I must say tommy, it's been a pleasure reading your posts lately. I've always enjoyed the prose, but must admit, I used to be in the "he stinks at poker or intentionally posts mistakes to stir the pot camp".

Your posts over the last few weeks have been as well written as always, and the content has been awesome. thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold:

pf - 79.99
flop - 17.24
turn - 13.10
river - 13.57


[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem unreasonable. He folds to a bet on the river 52% of the time, but most of the time he is putting in a bet or the hand is checked down, so the total amount of folds he makes on the river is just 14%. I would not try to push a player with these stats off a hand... but maybe I should take a closer look at how I set up my stat display, since this guy apparently would fold 50% of the time to a river donk bet.