13BB/100 in 4k hands?

3N1GM4 · #1 05-22-2005, 04:11 PM

Hey, just wanted to get some feedback from you guys on my stats, as I've been looking at them a lot recently. I have 4k hands at Prima .25/.50, with a lot of them at 6-max. According to PT, I am currently over 13BB/100, with 22.49 VP$IP, 9.57% PFR and a post flop aggression factor of about 2.8... Now, it might just be me that's wrong, or that 4k hands isn't enough to tell properly, but the figure of 13BB/100 seems far too good. I mean, I am a winning player, but that seems over the top? Also, the 4k hands includes many when I was still starting out (and losing), which surely should make the stats worse...

Just looking for some sensible feedback anyway, do these figures look about right to you? Also, when should I think about moving up to .50/1? I figure at the moment I don't have the roll for it, as I cash out my money as well as spending it on tourneys... I currently have about $320 in my account. How much should I have to move up? I've heard that the 300BB rule for limit is no good for NL, and so a guide of 15 buyins is more appropriate, but according to that, I would need $450 to be playing .25/.50 and $750 to be playing .50/1 with buyins of $30 and $50 respectively. So how much do you think I should build before I move up?

Thanks in advance for you help.

UOPokerPlayer · #2 05-22-2005, 05:16 PM

I'm winning for 15.9 after about 3k hands. I say you should move up when you're crushing the game you're playing to the point where it's boring. I bet you'll have enough money when you hit that point. I'd also not look too much into the stats untill about 6k. I don't know for sure. I can't really offer much more. What is your symbol? I'm the smiley face now, for what it's worth. My stats are 21.34VPIP, 11.55PFR, WTSD20.76, and aggression factor of 4.06. The post flop aggression seems to be my biggest concern, is it that far off?

3N1GM4 · #3 05-22-2005, 05:24 PM

I'm the Eagle, which I believe is TA A, one of the best to be as far as I know. I hear what you're saying about not reading too much into stats until I have more hands, I realise that 4k is probably not a huge sample.

elus2 · #4 05-22-2005, 05:30 PM

colliding against a 400bb stack and losing is all it takes to demolish your winrate. instead of statistics i think you'd be better off looking at the key hands that got you big wins/losses as well as your standard play for many smaller pot situations. analyzing your decision making process and finding out where the gaps are in your game would serve you far better than finding some holy grail of optimal vpip/pfr/agg factor. i think these statistics won't be meaningful until you have maybe like 100k hands anyways since any anomalous conditions can easily skew your game over a few hands. i think you should move up when you have 20 buyins for the level you're wanting to play since you might not be used to any increased aggression or any other game conditions which could cost you some money on your first few thousand hands.

3N1GM4 · #5 05-22-2005, 07:56 PM

ok thanks, does everyone else agree with this?

Lawrence Ng · #6 05-22-2005, 08:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Now, it might just be me that's wrong, or that 4k hands isn't enough to tell properly, but the figure of 13BB/100 seems far too good.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are buying in for the full amount of 100 BB each time, then 13 BB/100 is sustainable over the long run. If you are buying short stack, this rate will probably not be sustainable as you will sacrifice potential earnings/EV against the short stack buy-in.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, when should I think about moving up to .50/1? I figure at the moment I don't have the roll for it, as I cash out my money as well as spending it on tourneys... I currently have about $320 in my account

[/ QUOTE ]

Anytime you feel you can kick their ass.

Lawrence

UOPokerPlayer · #7 05-23-2005, 01:32 AM

I think if I play 100k in PPnl25 i'll be in a mental institution. I think the things that he was talking about, looking at how your big wins/losses went, working on your standard plays in pots, makes your winrate. You have to look at winrate with a grain of salt, but thats the same with all statistics. A good winrate may not always be caused by good play, but good play, over time, will always cause a good winrate.