99 on button on bubble

[beetyjoose]

$10+1 PP MTT Freeze Out: 1900 Entrants down to about 240; 220 on pays. Blinds are 300/600

Just as a little background:

Inspired by some recent posts in the MTT section, I've decided to really disect my game and focus on all the plays I make. I had been running bad recently partly due to lack of focus and the fact that I had been trying to make up for my losses in every MTT I played. This resulted in loose calls in an attempt to build a big stack early on, and weak/tight behavoir around the bubble, in fear of losing another buy in.

Needless to say, this behavoir is not conducive to winning poker. I've decided to lower my stakes and number of tables played at once. Also, I've been trying hard to be very aggressive around the bubble to take advantage of the general weak/tight nature.

Anyway, on to the show...

My table image was very aggressive at the time. I was raising many pots and stealing a lot of blinds. However, I can't remember showing a loser in long time. I had shown big hands for winners including a 4 of kind 2's.

I had a pretty dominate chip lead at the table for a while, but just lost about a quarter of my stack to an all in preflop with KK vs AA (what can you do?) Still above average and probably 3rd at the table.

MP ($6500) : raises to $1500 (one of the looser players at the table)

Folds around to myself on the button with 99.

Button($9500):?
SB: ( $3000)
BB: (12000 Chip leader)
Still two players left to act.

SB: hadn't played a hand since I'd been at the table; had the image of "I'll be happy just to make the money
BB: Tight/aggressive player and current chip leader. Hadn't shown a loser and gained his chips by big hands all-in preflop. He had just doubled through me not to long ago with AA vs KK.

I'll post results after some feedback.

[Chief911]

You certienly cannot fold. Most of the time I'll call and play a flop here. But there are many (better) players that I've seen that would push this.

Nick

[People_Mover]

[ QUOTE ]
You certienly cannot fold. Most of the time I'll call and play a flop here. But there are many (better) players that I've seen that would push this.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with a call and see what the flop brings. If checked to you, throw a bet out there and fold to a raise if there are overcards. That's just me...

[Tailgunner]

I like the call here too. I'd probably push, but going into the bubble isn't where I'd choose to risk running into a hand. MP knows you're aggressive and is playing into the tight blinds with a short stack also, so even though he's loose you've got to give him some credit. Folding is definitely too weak against a loose player behind you and tight ahead, a call will at worst let you fold to a re-raise and give you a read on how to play the flop without committing yourself.

[beetyjoose]

Thanks for the input thus far. I think I should of just called preflop, but unfortunetely that's not what I did.

I ended up re-raising about half my stack $4500 in an attempt to isolate. Looking back this was probably a weak play, as I was planning to play for all my chips if need be.

What happened next caught me off guard:

Button: raises to $4500
SB: Folds (not surprising)
BB: Smoothe Calls (Danger!)
MP: Smoothe Calls

O.K... So now my isolation plan went out the window, and with the two smoothe calls, I'm beginning to think I'm way behind.

Flop comes 725 rainbow

BB: Open pushes (not surprising)
MP: Thinks, and Folds
Button:???

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
MP ($6500) : raises to $1500 (one of the looser players at the table)

[/ QUOTE ]

i assume this guy is agg, too? you have fold the flop every time there's an overcard. i think the flop will be tough to play, but there's a very good chance we can win this pot now with a push. and villain may call with worse.

[Tailgunner]

MP's think-fold looks like some kind of overcards or weak ace, which makes BB even more likely to be representing an overpair... since he's not likely to smooth call two PF raises and fire at the flop with 88, I'd fold. There's a chance he could be pushing you around after having dominated you, but it's not worth it when you'd still have enough of a stack to ride into the money.

[beetyjoose]

I thought about this for a while and I ended up folding. I still had a decent amount of chips to double through.

This hand bugged me a lot during and after the hand. I'm not sure if it was correct or not, but my reasoning was for the following:

I had come to the conclusion that the BB had a big hand preflop. I didn't want to look at the flop, see all small cards and say to myself "he has AK".

I was trying to be consistent with my read. Even if he had a small PP he may have hit a set. Pretty much the only hand he has that I can beat is 88.

I'm thinking that I may have misplayed the preflop action, but perhaps I salvaged the hand. Oh perhaps I should of called because I set out to play the hand a certain way and should of stuck to my guns.

[locutus2002]

Hero pushes.

your 99 is the best hand against a loose raiser, and you can't expect the blinds to wake up with a hand.

Calling is weak, the hand will not play well 3 ways and BB will play for sure. You can't put 15% of your stack in the pot and hope to flop a set, or that it gets checked down 3 ways against 2 aggressive players and your 99 holds up .

I would raise different amounts based on the players.

MP should easily call all his chips if you put him in because he will get > 2:1, so you have no FE with MP BTF.

This means that any raise is designed for the blinds. I think the best and simplest thing to do is push. If villain has an overpair you are likely to lose your chips whatever raise you put in, and there are many hands that villain might laydown because he has a nice stack, and could be crippled by you.

[-Oz-]

IMO, most NLH tourney players overvalue medium pairs. I know most will disagree with me here, but I think this is a fold preflop (even though it is close).

Rational:

1) The big stack in the big blind has yet to act. This forces us to tighten our standards a little.

2) Calling is incorrect. We aren't getting the pot or implied odds to hit our set. How do we play a "good" flop (all undercards)? How do we play a bad flop (1 or more overcards)? Even if we end up heads up, there are few flops that don't contain a 9 that we can play strongly, especially since any flop bet by MP pot commits him.

Certainly, the all in play has some merit and it's far superior to a smaller raise or a call, but for me, 99 is right on the borderline for this play. I muck 99 and jam with TT here.

Interesting problem; I'm going to run it by my brain trust to see what they think.

-Oz-