Late stages of NL tournament questions

Hi all -

I played yesterday in the $300 multi-rebuy tournament at the Bike (Legends). I got pretty deep and thought I played well until the very end, where I think I made a series of mistakes that cost me a much higher placement. First place in this event was about $110k; I finished 11th for about $3700.

Disclaimer: While I work for PokerStars (as some of you know), this post has nothing to do with the company.

I discussed these situations with Greg Raymer, who gave me some opinions; he suggested that I post this here for more input. Here are the situations - fire at will.

Situation 1: 13 players left, 7 at my table. Blinds are 800-1600 with 300
ante. I have 21k before the hand starts. I raise to 6k with A8s. Guy I
haven't played with much, but gives me the impression of being a tight
conservative player, thinks for a long time and moves in (has me
covered). Do I call? Should I have moved in rather than raising? [I
folded, and we didn't see the hand.)

Situation 2: 11 players left, 6 at my table. I am UTG with 8.5k; blinds
are 1k-2k with 500 ante, but there is only about 2:00 on the clock, so I
will probably have to take a 2k big AND a 2k small plus antes. Do I move
in with anything here? My thinking is that I still have enough chips to
make someone think twice about calling, and otherwise I have to go with 1-
2 random hands in the blinds. (I have J6o and fold.)

Situation 3: next hand. I take 2k BB, leaving me with 6k after ante. UTG
pretty solid player raises, everyone folds. I have 63o and am struggling
to figure out if I am compelled to call; next hand HAS to be better than
this one, but chances are good that my two cards are live. (I fold.)

The last one isn't a decision; just thought I would add how it
turned out. I now have 3.5k left after posting SB (blinds have gone up)
and ante, so am compelled to call any raise. Cutoff raises, and I call
blind. I am delighted to see him turn over 67s (and what was he thinking
in this spot, KNOWING that I have to call - good player who apparently had
a mental lapse). Unfortunately, I turn over my hand, and have 64o [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Flop holds some hope - Q57, making me open-ended - but 2 comes on turn,
and then disgusting 6 on river - we both pair, but his 7 plays.

Looking forward to hearing all comments, good, bad or otherwise.

...dan

[-Oz-]

Hi Dan -

Congrats on your ITM performance. It's always frustrating to make it this far and fall short of the big money.

[ QUOTE ]
I discussed these situations with Greg Raymer, who gave me some opinions; he suggested that I post this here for more input. Here are the situations - fire at will.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd love to hear what Greg said about these. Perhaps you can let us know after we take a few shots at it.

[ QUOTE ]
Situation 1: 13 players left, 7 at my table. Blinds are 800-1600 with 300
ante. I have 21k before the hand starts. I raise to 6k with A8s. Guy I
haven't played with much, but gives me the impression of being a tight
conservative player, thinks for a long time and moves in (has me
covered). Do I call? Should I have moved in rather than raising? [I
folded, and we didn't see the hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't say what position you were in, but I assume cutoff or button. Was 6K the "standard" raise at this table with these blinds? With an M just under 5, your decision is fairly close, but I would probably just jam and hope for the best.

But, once you decide not to jam, I think you have to make a slightly smaller raise. I'd make it about 4.5K to go, intending to fold to a reraise. Not a lot of difference between this play and the one you made, but those 1500 could make a big difference once you double through once or twice.

[ QUOTE ]
Situation 2: 11 players left, 6 at my table. I am UTG with 8.5k; blinds
are 1k-2k with 500 ante, but there is only about 2:00 on the clock, so I
will probably have to take a 2k big AND a 2k small plus antes. Do I move
in with anything here? My thinking is that I still have enough chips to
make someone think twice about calling, and otherwise I have to go with 1-
2 random hands in the blinds. (I have J6o and fold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

These situations are tough; I wouldn't fault someone for just jamming here. I tend to be a little tighter UTG once I'm in danger of becoming a microstack. I'd rather take 2 random cards in the big blind than a semi-weak hand UTG. I'd hate it, but I'd lay down here too.

[ QUOTE ]
Situation 3: next hand. I take 2k BB, leaving me with 6k after ante. UTG
pretty solid player raises, everyone folds. I have 63o and am struggling
to figure out if I am compelled to call; next hand HAS to be better than
this one, but chances are good that my two cards are live. (I fold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Once I lay down the J6 hand UTG, I tell myself I'm committed to any 2 cards in the BB (assuming one raiser when the action gets to me). I'd look at the 63, mentally sigh, push my meager stack in, and pray. It's a tough hand to take a stand with, but at least you are only against 1 player at this point; you don't know if you will have that luxury on the next hand.

Tough way to go out, but it really didn't seem like you got any opportunities when you needed them.

-Oz-

[BCl]

im not qualified to give u insight AFTER raymer thats for sure but just for fodder ill tell you what i think i would have done..

Situation 1: I wouldnt have raised to begin with but by laying it down you allowed yourself to move from 13th to 11th...dont see how you can question that move.

Situation 2:.every hand im in the game is 1 more hand i may move up in the money. your so short stacked even if you dbl up does that move you ahead of anybody? and would 16k give you THAT much more of a chance to move up? the % that it adds to your chances of winning it all cant be much at all...j6o....i fold

Situation 3 & 4: my only hope is a big pr, AK or KQ....Any other hand adds very little to my chances of moving up in the money and frankly im posting and folding till im out...my strategy is to see every hand possible in hopes somebody else goes out before me...i dont belive the slight chance of dbling up with "any two" is +ev over posting and folding....only way im playing a hand is with the previously mentioned hands. otherwise i post and fold till my last 500 hit the table.

thats what id do....now you've had advice from me and raymer...which 1 you going with?????lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[betgo]

Situation 1: What position are you? I wouldn't raise A8s UTG 7-handed. You are getting about 2-1 to call the reraise. Would villain reraise with 77 or KQ? If so, it is a call. If not, you are probably worse than 2-1 agianst his range. You should only raise with this from CO or later, in which case, I would call the reraise. Could you find a better hand to raise with? High cards, suited connector, small pair, or something? A8s is dominated when called.

Situation 2: You have 8.5 and there is 6 in the pot, so your pot odds are good. I think this is a push. You should have a slight folding equity. You should be a little ahead with pot odds if you just get called by the BB. If two or more people might flat call and check it down, fold.

Situation 3: You are getting 2-1 pot odds, but 63o is worse than a 2-1 dog against UTG raisers range of hands. Easy fold.

Situation 4: The raise with 76s is not that bad. He is about even against a random SB hand and there is dead money from BB and antes. He may have also thought, based on Sit. 1-3, that you were weak/tight and might fold.

Re situation 1: I was in the cutoff.

Re situation 4: This guy had played with me at a prior table, and unless he believed that I had radically changed my style, he knew that I was calling. Then there's the fact that I announced before the hand started that I was pot-committed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Greg's comments follow:

Situation 1: I don't like the amount of your preflop raise. Why so much?
3xBB is only 4.8K, so why make it 6K? In my experience, in the very late
stages of a tourney like this, the raise to 4.8K, heck, even a raise to 4K,
will steal the blinds almost as often as a somewhat larger raise to 6K. As
such, why risk that extra 1.2K? It is 25% more, but they will probably fold
their blind to you only 5-10% more often, if that. Basically, search out
the smallest possible raise that will get the job done, and make that your
standard opening raise for that level.

Also, 6K is almost 1/3 of your stack, and my general rule of thumb is to
never put in 1/3 or more of my stack and then fold preflop. If I do so, it
is only because I am faced with indisputable evidence that I am behind an
overpair. And, since the only overpair you can face here is AA, I would've
called the extra 15K. This is another reason to only raise to 4K or 4.5K in
this spot, as it does leave you room to fold without it being as big of a
disaster.

Finally, if my preflop raise is going to be 1/3 or more of my stack, I
usually put it all-in myself, rather than raising 1/3 and then calling the
reraise. The last thing you want here is to find this guy turning over A9o
which he would have folded if you had raised all-in, and he had no steal
equity in the pot. Lots of guys will raise with a hand when they think you
might fold, even if they really shouldn't give you much chance of folding,
whereas they would never call your all-in with the same hand.

In summary, raise a bit less, and then fold to your read that he is a tight
player and has you crushed, or raise all-in as your first move.

Situation 2: You don't move in with any two cards here unless you think
there is some reasonable chance that they all fold. If you judge your steal
equity to be close to zero, then you don't move in here unless this hand
figures on being at least somewhat better than the random hand you're going
to find in the big blind. Conversely, if you think that even in your tough
spot they are going to give you credit and fold a lot of hands, then move in
with anything, and hope they don't find a good starting hand.

Situation 3: I call blind here. You are facing a raise to 8K, 6K more to
you. There is 6K in blinds and antes out there, plus his 8K, or 14K total,
giving you better than 2:1 on the call. Since the game is 6-handed, and
you're clearly in there with a random hand, they don't have to have a big
pair to make the raise, and you won't be a 2:1 dog unless you happen to have
a dominated hand (as happened later in the small blind final hand). If you
were only getting 2:1, and not a small overlay, or if there is reason to
give the raiser credit for a big hand, then you can fold garbage like 63o.
However, if there is no really compelling reason that this raiser's range of
hands is enriched with big pairs, then I call blind here. Or, even if I
look, it's only so they don't know that I called blind, so to speak.