Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)

[beset7]

I've been playing for a living for a while now. I have a family of four that I support playing poker while I finish off my last year of law school. I've got great job prospects for after school and I would never consider poker to be a long-term viable career for me. But it has paid the bills and my results have been very solid over the last 6 months.

I've often talked about "running bad" or having a "downswing." This has usually ment that I had a couple days in a row where i dropped 2-3 buyins. Or, a week or so were I'd end each session down a buy-in. I play about 10k hands a week if that puts these swings in perspective for you.

Then, 3 weeks ago after making my mid-september cash out i began what I have now discovered to be a REAL downswing. Not just a few bad sessions, but a legitimate, honest to god dehabilitating downswing. Over 20k hands I am down 12 buyins. I have had:

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Set over set 11 times
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] KK v AA all-in preflop 9 times
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Set v. suited TPTK who hits runner-runner flush 5 times (3 times with very deep stacks that got all-in on the flop or turn)
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] An abormally low number of sets with low PPs

Much of these occurences just happened to come to be when stacks were deep.

I'm sure I could list more statistical improbabilities. Myself and 2 other players that I trust and respect have poured over my pokertracker DB and found no major leaks in my play. There are always things to work on and I learned a lot from this process but I was by no means hemmoraging money through bad play. This is a REAL downswing. If I was a live cash game pro this would amount to a losing year I suppose.

I share this only because I think at times in these forums there is a remarkable naivety concerning what constitutes a real downswing, what type of win-rates are actually sustainable, etc.

On the positive side, i believe i will come out of this a better poker player, with a more marked detachment from results and a clearer understanding of what type of fluctuations are possible in the outer margins of winning and losing.

Unfortunately, too boot, after playing tilt-free poker during this hailstorm of improbabilities, i decided to take a shot at some bigger games (chasing losses. I know, i should probably go to GA) and my bankroll now lays in tatters. Luckily, like any good player should, i have living expenses stored up. But now I have to build up my roll as I can only live on savings for so long.

You guys have helped me immensely over the last year or so and I attribute the 150k hands I played at 8ptb/100 over 3 different limits in large part to that. So, may you all run well! I'll be back to the 100 and 200nl games to give swolfe misery soon enough.

[Morrek]

I'm in one myself, and this post does help me put things in perspective. I'm only down 7buyins in 8k hands though(after 30+k with 9bb/100) losing with set vs runner runner straights in pots around 4buyins and the likes several times, AA v QQ on AxxQ etc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but I'm learning how to handle it.

[whittiphil]

Hope it ends soon dude.

[Malachii]

Beset, hang in there my buddy. Hopefully you'll be on your feet again soon.

[Niwa]

stay cool and it will solve itself. gl.

[beset7]

Thanks everyone! Just waiting on my rakeback for september to arrive so I can start bonus whoring and playing 50nl 6max and maybe some LHE and SNGs. Its a trip to have gone from playing fairly high (I was solidly at 2/4 6max back in June when some life bad beats, some tilt and a more conservative bankroll management philosophy put me back down to 1/2 and .5/1 NL) to where I am at today. This job just isn't for the faint of heart.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll be back to the 100 and 200nl games to give swolfe misery soon enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't plan on sticking down here long...I've already doubled what was left of my bankroll [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you honestly think you played your A game poker throughout that entire downswing... I would find a new site to play on... Was this accross several sites, or just one?

I cannot imagine being on a downswing for 20k hands, after i played the best possible poker i could have played. Are you absolutely positive there isn't a leak there?

I could see one.. Possibly, *TRY TO stop going all in preflop with KK. However about the other ones, there simply isn't anything you can do about them

[beset7]

Well, to some extent or another we all have leaks. This process has helped me identify some spots where i still overplay overpairs, semi-bluff a little too hard with modest draws, etc. But none of that accounts for the downswing. Really, I was TRULY open to the idea that i suck at poker and had just been running good for 150K+ hands and I enlisted others to help objectively determine if this was the case and the consensus is no. I've experience, however statistically unlikely, a genuine downswing of biblical proportions. Atleast I've got one more rakeback payment on the way! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[punter11235]

I hope you will be disciplined enough to rebuild your bankroll in lower games and then come back to your regular ones.
You are right that most ppl here dont realize what real downswing is (see all "vicious" 8xbuyin downswing threads).
I am sure that if you show enough discipline to rebuild your bankroll in lower games and only then come back to your regular ones you will be much better player than you are now. Ive just went through the biggest downswing in my poker career (35days, -10k at the worst moment) which just ended yesterday and I am still not back to my old game.
Grinding it down can really tech you discipline and make you immune to all the bad beats.

I wish you luck [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]