20-40 at the Mirage

[John Gaspar]

The game has been semi-tight with 3 players seeing the flop for a raise but it can become a limp fest if UTG and UTG+1 limp. 6-7 may come including the blinds. UTG+1 is a very solid winning player in this game and has pretty good control over the table. UTG+1 open limps, MP calls, CO calls, I raise on the button with K [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] all call.

The flop comes 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] . UTG +1 bets out, MP and CO fold, I raise, UTG calls quickly. This is not common for him. He usually ponders most calls, sometimes as an act.

I have put the caller on a medium pair 66-99, A10suited - J10suited, probably spades but could be diamonds as a backdoor flush draw. The folders actually hurt my read as if they had called his bet and I raised, I think there is a good chance he would have re-raised with a suited 10 and spades. Because we were now heads up, he just called which left me unsure of his holding.

The turn brought the 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] : The board is now 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] UTG+1 bets out. I don't know whether or not I can lay my hand down here. This player has told me he respects my play so he has to give me some credit for a decent holding, an over pair AKs or off, big suited spades, etc.

When he bets out, is he telling me he can beat my overpair or is he still probing to see if I was trying to buy a free card with spades? I call.

River was the A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] The only hands I can beat are middle pairs. UTG+1 bets out. The ace had to scare him due to my possible hands but he bet out. This left me with A10o or K10-J10spades as his holdings, none of which I can beat.

I called for 2 reasons, the poor reason is that I lack confidence in my read and wanted to know what hand he actually played the way he did.

The second reason was that this player was surely capable of thinking past the 2nd level and he also knew that I was as well. He "knew" that I would throw KK-JJ's with that board and he might still bet an underpair to get me to throw away my hand.

Am I just making stuff up to justify a river call and over thinking or is this a reasonable thought process?

[mike l.]

it's close between calling and folding. yes, it's true you are likely beat, but given the player and pot size a call is reasonable. if the pot were smaller, or the player more predictable, it would be leaning more towards fold, probably on the turn.

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi John. I'm curious as to why you didn't raise the turn here? Also, this player doesn't bluff as much as you might think. LGPG, Babe [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img]

[Zeno]

I agree with Pokerbabe on this one. Why didn't you raise the turn? "Overthinking" can tangle up your play. Perhaps a more straight forward style would be best in this situation.

-Zeno

[John Gaspar]

Hi Babe,

I didn't raise the turn because I thought I was either a small favorite or a big dog. If he reraises me, I have to throw my hand away. It has cost me 2 bets. If I call out, it costs me 2 bets and I get to a showdown. I do win an extra bet if he is on a flush draw and misses, but I thought a pure flush draw was unlikely. If he is on an underpair, he might check the river and I can bet my K's for value.

Actually, I think he bluffed very rarely. But we had just had a conversation away from the table about big laydowns, one he had made a few hands earlier, K's vs A's, on the turn, with no Ace on the board. It was still in my head and I thought this was a good opportunity for him to be testing me and whether or not I would lay down a big hand. It was a good spot for him to play a middle pair just like he would a 10.

[samz]

[img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]

[John Gaspar]

Sorry K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img]