A Microsoft Interview Question (aka basic Bayes' Theorem)

[DQPaulie]

I would say our strategy matters. If we look at the situation now, we have a 2/3 probability of survival either way. Our odds are the same either way, but are the situations to follow the same? If our opponent knows all the same odds as we do, we have to pull the trigger unspun. Reason is if we survive we leave hime with a 1/2 chance of survival if he just pulls the trigger, so he will spin to better his probability of survival to 2/3 and if he misses we get the 3/4 probability to survive again. If we spin we get the same odds as not spinning, but then leave him with the favorable odds of 3/4 . We would rather have the 3/4 odds if we get that far.