Induce the bluff biatch!

Oblivious · #1 08-01-2004, 02:29 AM

Just an illustration of inducing the bluff on the river. I think its a rather nice one, but Im a little bias.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Oblivious is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB completes, Oblivious raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, SB folds.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Oblivious bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Oblivious bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls.

River: (8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Here's where it happens. He either has a pair or he doesnt. If he doesnt have me beat, hes probably not going to call a river bet from me. If he does have me beat, he probably will call a river bet.

Oblivious checks, MP1 bets, Oblivious calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB
Main Pot: 10 BB, between MP1 and Oblivious. > Pot won by Oblivious (10 BB).

Results in white below: 
Oblivious shows Ks Ac (one pair, sevens).
MP1 shows Qh 8h (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Oblivious wins 10 BB.

Yeknom58 · #2 08-01-2004, 04:25 AM

First of all without a specific read I will RARELY "induce a bluff" as I find people will call with a pair of deuces but will less likely bet.

Secondly in the rare occasion where I do pull this move, I always have a hand better than ace High.

You stated, "Here's where it happens. He either has a pair or he doesnt. If he doesnt have me beat, hes probably not going to call a river bet from me. If he does have me beat, he probably will call a river bet."

Yes you are correct, the problem is the percentage of the time someone will bet in this spot with a no pair hand is pretty small. So without a "overagressive bluffing dude" read your average player will more likely fold a pair of 2's than bet Queen high. Maybe other will disagree but I pretty much dislike your example.

uaw420rook · #3 08-01-2004, 04:32 AM

I see nothing of value here.

lil' · #4 08-01-2004, 09:19 AM

I think this was a good play. He doesn't have a 7. He very likely did not call a raise with a 5 or 2. If he got stupid lucky with that 9 on the end, good for him, but I want to see it.

Nice hand.

Yeknom58 · #5 08-01-2004, 10:59 AM

"He very likely did not call a raise with a 5 or 2."

Aparently you haven't played 1-2 in a while. In addition to having a 5/2 he could have any small PP in this spot. I'm clearing a bonus at 1-2 and I just saw a guy CC 3 bets on the flop with Th5d on a board of AsKs5c.

lil' · #6 08-01-2004, 11:14 AM

Aparently you haven't played 1-2 in a while. In addition to having a 5/2 he could have any small PP in this spot. I'm clearing a bonus at 1-2 and I just saw a guy CC 3 bets on the flop with Th5d on a board of AsKs5c.

Wacky crap happens all the time, but that doesn't change this hand. This is still a good play. He has enough of a hand to showdown, but not enough of a hand to bet.

This will be good more than 1 out of 9 times.

1800GAMBLER · #7 08-01-2004, 01:41 PM

Bet the river. A high checks behind.

spamuell · #8 08-01-2004, 05:11 PM

I think you really have to do this. I'm reluctant to check-fold here and even though he will call with lesser A-high hands (thanks Jay), I still don't think a bet has value. He might even bet lesser A-high hands actually, thinking he's bluffing.

1800GAMBLER · #9 08-01-2004, 08:32 PM

Trust me, the majority of the time he has A high. This time is a rare case. betting is far far far better.

spamuell · #10 08-01-2004, 09:15 PM

Trust me, the majority of the time he has A high.

Much as I'd love to trust you, I just can't yet on this hand. MP1 limped, he probably has Ax, a pocket pair below TT, some (possibly suited) connectors which either paired or are drawing either to a straight or to overcards. Given the action on the flop and turn, TT-88 is unlikely (but not impossible) and a hand with a 7 is extremely unlikely. If you check the river, he probably bets most pairs (if he limped with some crap like J2s then he may well check behind with just a pair of twos or even 5s and if you're lucky and he's very passive, higher pairs) and he checks behind A-high (although he will occasionally bet this). He might check overcards lower than A-high or might bet them. If you bet, he'll fold hands less than A-high, call (and rarely raise although this doesn't matter because you can fold) with pairs and he will usually call and sometimes fold A-high.

So, if you check, a better hand sometimes checks behind and often bets and a worse hand sometimes checks behind and sometimes bets. If you bet, a worse hand usually folds and sometimes calls and a better hand (pretty much) always calls and sometimes raises. I just don't see why betting is better.