Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's the basic idea. Also, if you pass on this hypothetical 57.5% coin flip, it will take some time before you find your "better" situation to get your money in. If instead you had called for all your chips and won, you would've been able to use your skill with the new stack. So if you want to wait for a "better" spot to double up, it has to be significantly better, because if you double up here, you'll have more chips later.

Best,
Matt

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this edge inevitable to pass up even when you consider yourself to be one of the best players in the tournament, able to build your stack without showing down much?

This was a topic discussed earlier this week.

Oh, and ty for posting Matt. Post more when you can. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[jacksup]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this edge inevitable to pass up even when you consider yourself to be one of the best players in the tournament, able to build your stack without showing down much?


[/ QUOTE ]

It's sort of a Catch-22. The best players in the tournament don't pass up an edge like this, almost by definition. Another way to say this, it's going to be very hard for you to build your stack without showing down unless you convince your opponents that you're not afraid to call in spots like this. And the best way to convince them is, of course, to call.

Matt

[KaneKungFu123]

i stopped reading once you told us that you pushed... not for any particular reason, so i mightve missed something... but i think your play is bad because it looks like you have 22-JJ(at best).

and its too likely that you will get called, also why not just wait and outplay these guys later?

[Jason Strasser]

ZJ,

I didnt think you had this in you, you little nit. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

I think you represent a hand like 88 pretty well.

-Jason

[Jason Strasser]

Is representing 22-JJ bad?

I think thats probably what he was trying to do... What range do u put the smart/aggro reraiser on?

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
The move is great only if players will fold, and my uncontested number is 20%. The rest is a crapshoot where hero has the worst of it, but an overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]
You really think his FE here is only 20%? I put it alot higher.

An aggressive player re-raises a guy who mistakenly raised. Then a tight player (sure I know ZJ isn't tight, but does this guy know this?) pushes over the top. This to me is where an aggressive smart player says NH and mucks his 98s.

Worst case, I think you get called here by a smaller pair and are coinflipping. Sure MP1 thinks it will be vs. AK, but it is really J9.

[KaneKungFu123]

[ QUOTE ]
Is representing 22-JJ bad?

I think thats probably what he was trying to do... What range do u put the smart/aggro reraiser on?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought he was over confident aggro? i think he'll call with any two broadway cards, any mid pair.

[dmoney]

I really like this play. Almost nobody will call you on this.(unless they already have u dominated . Although I would be worried about the MP1 (old dood) calling you with A,J. If he’s not that good he may just not realize that AJ isn’t an all in hand in the first level  Although id probably put him on a suited connector. 7,8 – 8,9 – 9,10. Besides that I think that the Aggressive young guy wont call you with anything less then QQ. Not even AK probably. (due to the fact hes playing LAG he’s probably got KJ, maybe QJ. So hes a fold) He’s aggressive and probably realizes his aggression can gain him more chips by continuting to have a lot of chips and using them aggressively vs possibly playing a tricky situation and is already dominated.(because u are representing AA,KK,QQ,AK to most ppl Lets be honest, most avg players will think that is what you have here. Lets just say we are glad DW didnt have a hand and he already folded [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Most ppl WANT To think you have aces and kings here so they'll fold this early in a tourny.) We all can see that MP3 is stealing this pot. Although probably a 5%-10% chance hes got a monster and was smooth calling with aces and now with the pot built hes trying to get It heads up or win the pot right here. Id say unlikely. Although ive been wrong before.

Personally I’ve always gone by the modo Don’t get ur chips in the middle unless your pretty damn sure you’re the decent favourite. With so many ppl in this pot I probably wouldn’t make this same play just for the fact that I would be pretty sure I could get my money in in a better spot in the future. There is defeintly a potential for a call from 1 out of 3 players.

Overall I really do like this play (personally if I made this play id PREFER folds but getting a caller and outdrawing a sucker would be almost as good for your table image (just like u said, ppl would have no idea how to play you, theyd probably think your bluffing everytime after this. You stand to make a lot of chips from this play in future as long as ur table doesn’t break. I like it. Good move. I hope you outdrew Aces  I LOVE hearing idiots say (“ I NEVER WIN WITH ACES”) haha It’s possibly my favourite line.

[Georgia Avenue]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is an older guy, (45ish). He doesn't seem too experienced, and is clearly one of the worst players at the table. He's loose passive. I'm fairly certain he's a low limit online player that won a satellite into this event. My read is that he will be very hesitant to put his tournament on the line. He has roughly 9k chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone consider this guy a threat? I know ZJ said he's hesitant to go out, but I've seen these lowlimit donkeys call raise after raise pf with JJ or QQ. He may be too scared to bet but happy to call allin with it.

Eh, it seems unlikely. Just a thought. If I'm right, do I win a cookie?

[Temp Hutter]

I do not have time to read all of the responses, so I apologize if this has been said already.

If I were at the table and not in the hand I would be guessing that you and MP3 were both weak. The nice part about your play is that you got all of your chips in first and now MP3 is going to have a hard time calling that many chips. I think you win without seeing a flop. It pays to be aggressive here.

The bad news is that if you see a flop, you are almost certainly an underdog and will need to catch up. The biggest problem I have with this play is that you were only in the pot for T150 and now your tournament life is on the line with J9. I hope it worked out for you.