Responding to a raise with AK

[Dr. Badhead]

I've had this situation come up several times in my last few MTTs. I'd love some feedback.

Pokerroom 30+3 MTT Final Table (everyone is ITM) BB=300 Nine players left

I have 3.2K and am a middle stack at the table in late position. The villan, who has been very aggressive but hasn't had to show down many hands, raises to 1.5K. Many would say "instapush" but I wonder if my most likely situation is a coin flip and I should wait for a better situation?

[Koss]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if my most likely situation is a coin flip and I should wait for a better situation?

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Why do people always seem to have the idea that with AK they will always be in a coinflip? Do they forget that it dominated every other non-pair holding your opponent could have?

9 players left and all are in the money. assuming at least 90 started and 10% gets paid and assuming you start with either 1000 or 1500 chips that would be either 10,000 chips or 15,000 chips to just have an average chip stack, and now you have 3200 chips with blinds at 300, you just barely have 10BB's. If you want to take 1st place, this is an easy push. Not sure what kind of tourny this is with those chip stacks and 1/2 the players having less than you (must be a monstrous stack the chip leader has). Make your move now or are you waiting for the chip leader to pick you guys off one by one.

[wiggs73]

You only need slightly better odds than 1:1 to call a push if you KNOW villain has a pocket pair (other than AA or KK). If neither of you are in the blinds, you'll probably have those odds. I know villain didn't push, but let's assume he did... either way, all the chips are going in.

Couple this with the fact that villain will raise with hands besides pairs such as AQ, AJ, KQ, etc., I think it's a pretty easy push.

[nath]

Why must a very aggressive villain only have a pocket pair here?
If you are looking for hands to beat you to find a fold, you're thinking about this the wrong way. Start thinking of what he might have and what you estimate your range is against this. (If you include AQ in his raising hands it's an easy push.)
And you don't win poker tournaments by fearing "coinflips".

[mikeymer]

[ QUOTE ]
I've had this situation come up several times in my last few MTTs. I'd love some feedback.

Pokerroom 30+3 MTT Final Table (everyone is ITM) BB=300 Nine players left

I have 3.2K and am a middle stack at the table in late position. The villan, who has been very aggressive but hasn't had to show down many hands, raises to 1.5K. Many would say "instapush" but I wonder if my most likely situation is a coin flip and I should wait for a better situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because u pushed and he called with a PP and knocked you out doesnt mean that happens all the time.

[SoBeDude]

1. Villian has been very agggressive.

2. He doesn't need a pair to raise PF.

3. He will fold many small/mid pairs to your push, along with many hands he's a 60/40 dog.

No offense, but this is really basic stuff.

We could spew all the math here, showing a reasonable range of hands he raises here, the percentage of those he'll fold preflop to your push, add in the times you get called and your hand holds up, then add in the times you're behind, get called, yet still win.

This is a very very very eash push. In fact, I think the push is the only correct play in this situation, and its not close.

-Scott

I think this is just the sort of coin flip you have to win if you are to win tourneys rather than just make the money.
The fact that he is a very aggressive player and has raised the higher end of the standard pre flop raise suggests AQ, AJ or small to medium pair, all of which he may fold to an all in reraise. You are getting close to the point of taking a chance in order to win the tourney and this is as good a spot as any with both your strong starting hand and the type of opponent.
I would move all in here.