i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,

[-Oz-]

[ QUOTE ]
it's the same for big tourney pros who are investing hundreds of thousands a year into tourney entry fees. they are after the big score, not to sneak their way into a tiny return on their money.

[/ QUOTE ]

If $10K is "life changing" money for a supersatellite player, he probably should have sold his seat.

I can't speak for anyone else, but many of the "pros" I correspond with evaluate opportunities in terms of expected return. The best players return 1-2 buyins per tourney over the long run. Gaining 1.1 buyins with practically no risk is a pretty good argument for folding under the stated conditions.

This isn't to say that lots of "pros" wouldn't be playing hyper aggressively even with a stack that can be picked off rather easily. And conversely, the vast majority of players that super-sated in would play hyper conservatively here (anyone up for a "should I throw away AA preflop" discussion [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). But just because an opinion aligns with how a low bankroll player would approach the situation, it doesn't mean it's wrong. And just because the conclusions may align doesn't mean the rational was correct in both cases either.

-Oz-

[SharkBait]

Interesting situation...

I really think it depends on what $11K means to you and whether cashing in a big event is important to your ego. If I'm a regular on the circuit I instapush if a double up will get me anywhere near the avg. I have a reserved seat on the bubble in $100 and 200 online tourneys (most recently used last night when I tried to resteal w/ 77 and a well below avg but safe stack). In real world terms 11K doesn't mean much to me but it would be a significant boost to the poker bankroll so I would probaly try to ease into the $, especially given the flat payout structure. If the table has been passive, I would consider a 2x ish mini raise trying to represent a monster that wants action. If I get popped pre, I prob fold and then go root for Jett to bust out.

[locutus2002]

Fold; its not even close.

Hero's $EV for T20,000 (16XBB) chips isn't that much greater than his $EV for T10,000 chips, given the flat payout structure. The downside is zero.

I think its probably correct to fold aces; although I'd feel terrible about it the next day.

Hero has to face the cold hard facts that he has played 2/3 of the tournament and has the same stack he started with, he should be happy to escape with his entry fee, and get in action again.

JJ isn't that EV+, so its not like hero is leaving that much on the table. And hero will still have a chance to gamble his stack once the bubble bursts.

[Melchiades]

Seems like an easy fold to me.

[SoBeDude]

When I first read this, my initial reaction was instapush.

But upon reading the posts below, clearly the only correct decision is to happily pretend those two cards are 72o and muck em quick.

Glad you posted this before this situation came up for me.

-Scott

[Seadood228]

If we assume the average stack is around 100k, looks like a fold. Doubling and even tripling won't neccessarily put hero in a position to do damage with the flat payout over the next few spots.

I think hero should wave the white flag on this hand if he/she likes money.

[southgapoker]

I do not understand why they even have a payout structure where 2/3 of the players "in the money" basically just get their buyin back.

[Pat Southern]

I think this is an easy push. Everyboyd is focusing on the $11k that you could miss out on if you just folded till the money, they're forgetting 1st is over $2 million, 2nd is over $1 million. The fact that significant money doesn't appear until top 20 means that you still need to accumulate chips and not cross your fingers to barely break even in the event. If this was a $100 tournament with this same payout structure everybody would be saying push.

Edit: To those who say its a fold, what are you doing with QQ, KK, AA?

[-Oz-]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an easy push. Everyboyd is focusing on the $11k that you could miss out on if you just folded till the money, they're forgetting 1st is over $2 million, 2nd is over $1 million. The fact that significant money doesn't appear until top 20 means that you still need to accumulate chips and not cross your fingers to barely break even in the event. If this was a $100 tournament with this same payout structure everybody would be saying push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, perhaps everybody-1. That's why I've been so careful to phrase my responses in terms of winning 1.1 buyins. For me, the logic holds regardless of the actual amounts we are talking about.

I guess the situation is screaming for a structrured hand analysis. I'll take a stab at it later tonight.

-Oz-

Fold. That payout structure is insanely linear.