Hand against LAG

spydog · #1 10-24-2005, 04:16 PM

Villian is 42/21/2.5

He rarely folds on the flop, but will fold turns. He also seems to bet when someone shows weakness.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

jba · #2 10-24-2005, 04:22 PM

I dont think I like checking the turn. I think you get too much value from flush draws and worse aces on the turn, and you set yourself up to lose a ton on the river when you are behind. I think there are just way too many hands with 5-9 outs getting a free look at the river.

i think on the river you are very very often getting 1BB when ahead and losing 3 when behind. granted you are almost always ahead, but still.

Megenoita · #3 10-24-2005, 04:29 PM

Bet the turn because he knows you would without an ace being the pfr in a HU pot. If he's a lag, he's almost never folding to that turn. He may donk/fold, but not fold straight out. I would cap the river for value. Really all that beats you is a flush. This is all assuming he's a lag and not just an aggressive player-our definitions may contrast.

M

TheMetetron · #4 10-24-2005, 04:38 PM

This isn't even worth explaining at all.

Bet the turn, stop being a tard.

Surfbullet · #5 10-24-2005, 04:41 PM

Okay, lets do some hand-reading here.

flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

IMO a lag c/r's this flop nearly always with any 4, 6, or FD. A Q may or may not, as he may be check-calling to c/r the turn.

Given that he smoothcalls the flop, he's either got a monster(rare) or most likely some unpaired junk hand / maybe backdoors that decided to peel the flop. Occasionally he'll have hit the A, but not often. Sometimes he'll have a PP too, or have picked up the flush draw.

Now, we're giving between 2-9 outs a free card on the river. in this tiny pot it costs us between .1-.5 of a BB. IMHO this type of LAG will bet the river with nearly any 2 after we check through the turn, so we snap off lots of bluffs which more than make up for the lost equity from the free card.

Now he bets the river - we expected that. We've improved, so we've got an easy value raise since 2pair that was trapping/ a queen will pay off. Additionally, we look FOS because he'd expect us to bet the Ace on the turn if we had it, so he'll 3bet worse aces here very often. I think it's closer to a 4bet than a call, but i'm unsure how he'd play a flopped set or A4 without being at the table with him. He doesn't have AJ+ b/c of no 3bet pf, so i'd probably cap since he doesn't think I have an ace.

NH.

Surf

Surfbullet · #6 10-24-2005, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't even worth explaining at all.

Bet the turn, stop being a tard.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this attitude is counter-productive (though you may have been joking?).

Checking here has merit. Sure, we don't do the best the times he has a weak ace and might have c/r'd us on the turn, but we are trying to make the most from his entire range of hands, not just the unlikely strong 2nd bests.

Surf

Megenoita · #7 10-24-2005, 04:44 PM

Surf, why can't he also be an idiot who is thinking like I would if I were a gambler, "What's the best way to try to win this hand?"

Specifying hand ranges stringently against lags is sometimes detrimental, but overall of course your analysis is good. I just question whether we can be that specific.

M

TheMetetron · #8 10-24-2005, 04:45 PM

You know, I read your analysis, and if the guy is really that stupid and predictable, this will work. Otherwise, we are just burning money.

I don't think we have that good a read on this guy. In a theoretical sense, I could agree with you though.

Surfbullet · #9 10-24-2005, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You know, I read your analysis, and if the guy is really that stupid and predictable, this will work. Otherwise, we are just burning money.

I don't think we have that good a read on this guy. In a theoretical sense, I could agree with you though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I tend to expect LAGs to be predictable, in that they'll be very very aggressive with all the hands in between the weak made hand->strong draw->moderate made hand and be "Sneaky" or give up with garbage and monsters, especially the 10/20 variety.

If he's erratic as well as lag we have more to worry about...I would say that most times villain's holdings on the turn are polarized between very weak and very strong, with very weak being the most likely...no?

Surf