River Decision

spydog · #1 09-22-2005, 02:35 PM

MP is 44/21/2.6 - He's eaten me for lunch at this point.

SB is 44/7/1.8 over 25 hands.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG raises, MP folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero scratches head.....

Jeffage · #2 09-22-2005, 02:43 PM

Hero scratches head.....

And checks behind.

Jeff

Shawsy · #3 09-22-2005, 03:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
 Hero scratches head..... 

[/ QUOTE ]

...and checks behind. You have to be the underdog if called.

What hands worse than yours would call? The A on the river has to convince TT and smaller pairs that they are pooched, if they didn't think so already. The pot is big though, so maybe someone will call just on pot odds - 17:1 is hard to pass up.

Would someone holding a better hand than yours fold to your bet? KK or QQ probably wouldn't fold, even if that's what SB or UTG holds - which is not likely anyway based on the action. No A is going to fold either.

My read - at least one of those two holds an ace. Maybe they don't like their kicker so they intend to check-call, or maybe since you have been the aggressor all along they expect you to bluff/value bet at them so they can pop you.