Another TAG hand

spydog · #1 10-27-2005, 09:44 AM

Villian is TAG

How do you proceed on the river?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 folds, MP raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP raises, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, MP calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, MP caps, Hero calls.

ALL1N · #2 10-27-2005, 09:47 AM

CR/call

imitation · #3 10-27-2005, 09:48 AM

wtf does he have with a 4 in it, I think you see sets enough to lead the river and call a raise. I would CR, but I don't want to pay 3-bets and I can't fold hands with AAA in them.

Oh if you improve hmm...CR yeh...if he has smaller set you get 3-4 bets for sure, but if you lead when the board pairs hey may may slow down and just call your river lead.

admiralfluff · #4 10-27-2005, 09:52 AM

what? why would you expect the TAG to bet here often enough fr the c/r to be good?

oh you mean for the river, n/m. I retardedly thought you were critiquing the turn play.

ALL1N · #5 10-27-2005, 09:54 AM

Why would he not bet? He puts us on AK when we check, and every hand he holds here beats AK.

imitation · #6 10-27-2005, 09:57 AM

Oh yeh CR is right regardless if you improve for the reasons I said when you improve, if you lead you only get raised on this board by a 4, if you CR atleast you get 2 bets out of the other sets + 1 from a ridiculous flush bluff or something. But paying off the 3-bet from a 5/10 TAG is likely flushing $10 down the toilet but like I said I s2 AAAxx

ALL1N · #7 10-27-2005, 09:59 AM

Even if he never 3-bet a worse hand, CR/call is far better than bet/call here, IMO.

admiralfluff · #8 10-27-2005, 10:01 AM

As a general rule, if your opponent caps the turn, and you are out of position, you should check/(c,f,r) the river rather than bet.

Danenania · #9 10-27-2005, 10:10 AM

Do we believe he could have 44? I suppose he could be trying to make you fold 99-KK with the flop raise. If he could have 44, does that mean he could have 33 or 22? How about A5s/A3s/A2s? I suppose that if he didn't have 44 he would have to put you on AK to play anything else this way.

If it's just between 44 and 55 then it's 6 to 3 and you should check/call. If he could have 22 or 33 in addition then it's 6 to 9, but he's much more likely to raise you with 44 than with the others, so you should still check/call. I suppose only if you throw the 12 two pairs in does a checkraise begin to look realistic (I see no benefits to a bet/call). In that case you are looking at a 6 to 21, which is really closer to 12 to 21 since he is very likely 3-betting your raise with 44 (and not with the others, though I don't think you could fold to a 3-bet). It all comes down to discounting possibilities. Do we discount 44 because he opened in MP? Then there's the flop raise. Seems like the two pairs should certainly be discounted for slowplaying the flop and overplaying the turn (though really they should be same as the sets since he can really only put you on AK or AA--still I think most opponents would value them differently anyhow).

After running through them all briefly I believe check/call is the way to go. Quite close though. The kicker is that A2/A3/A5 all seem far fetched to me

If the board pairs is another issue. I think betting will tend to shut down 44, though all the boats of course should raise you. The two pairs should also be shut down by betting except the one that boated up (though a counterfeit two pair would check behind if you check). Just doing some quick math in my head it sounds like betting will be quite a bit better. The only card that you may want to checkraise on is a deuce.

Edit: just changed my mind. I like c/r unimproved now. Don't think I discounted 44 enough. Still like bet/3-betting any card but a deuce on the river though (even moreso now, and maybe on a deuce as well).