What odds should I get on this prop bet? (Hole in One)

brick · #1 07-22-2005, 02:39 AM

One Attempt
Hole-in-One - Par 3 - 140 yards
I shoot in the low 80's on average and play twice a week in the summer.

If it matters, I'm only betting $1 per attempt.

ihardlyknowher · #2 07-22-2005, 02:42 AM

100:1

Claunchy · #3 07-22-2005, 02:45 AM

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100:1

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I was thinking that at first, but there's really no way that's close to +EV.

To the OP:
How many holes-in-one have you had in your life? Approximately how many par 3s have you played in your life?

brick · #4 07-22-2005, 02:48 AM

I thought about posting that but didn't want to skew the results. There's no way that the sample size is significant.

2+2 wannabe · #5 07-22-2005, 02:52 AM

anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

eric5148 · #6 07-22-2005, 02:57 AM

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100:1

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youhardlyknowgolf

brick · #7 07-22-2005, 02:59 AM

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anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

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If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1.

ceyoung · #8 07-22-2005, 03:03 AM

GOLF DIGEST has been the source for acer odds since the 1950s. To update them for the 21st century, we gave the latest numbers for rounds played each year (528 million) and estimated aces (100,000) to Francis Scheid, Ph.D., retired chairman of the mathematics department at Boston University. "It's simple arithmetic," Scheid says for the following scenarios, which assume four par 3s of varying lengths in an 18-hole round.

A player making an ace in a given round: 5,000 to 1

Two players, same foursome, acing same hole: 17 million to 1

Acing a designated hole in a single round: 20,000 to 1

Two players in a field of 200 acing same hole in a single round: 5,000 to 1

Acing the same hole more than once in 1,000 rounds: 1 in 200

Two aces in a single round, same player: 67 million to 1

2+2 wannabe · #9 07-22-2005, 03:06 AM

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anything less than 10000-1 is definitely -EV

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If I hit 10,000 shots I would make way more than 1.

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didn't see your average score

you wouldn't make more than 3 for sure

i give you 5000-1 then

edited to show that i didn't read the original post very well

2+2 wannabe · #10 07-22-2005, 03:07 AM

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Acing a designated hole in a single round: 20,000 to 1

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