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Old 11-09-2005, 07:03 AM
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Default Re: Flopping the stone nuts

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Except you don't, if nobody has anything then of course they will fold, whether or not you bet the flop or check and bet the river.

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Weak flushes, two pairs, and straights will fold to an EP bet on a flopped 3 flush 3 low; it's a scary board even for fish. In my experience people who will fold a flop will call a turn after the flop's been checked around, even if they don't hit. Plus, if you give 6 people a chance to hit a good hand or draw, they're going to hang around. As it is, the flop is very scary and most will fold to a bet.

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However you have to bet that flop, because it's the only way of getting lots of money in the pot if someone has A2 and a flush.

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If someone has A2 and a flush, you lose 1/2 - 2 BB out of them by not betting the flop, assuming all 6 players including the one with the A2 flush check it also. How much EV are you losing here? [censored] all. The chance to check raise multiple callers and trap money in the pot is also a big consideration here.

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The same applies for pot limit omaha/8, you must bet and hope someone has something.

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Pot limit is a different monkey, of course you bet it there, because you have to build a pot to get money in. This isn't the case here.

To give you an example of a stone nuts slowplay working, have a look at this (I rarely do this btw, but it's an excellent example of the principle at work):

$25 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Wednesday, November 09, 05:11:16 EDT 2005
Dealt to BadbeatPhil [ As 3s 7h Ad ]
VJT123 calls [$0.25].
Lridge folds.
starbuc48 folds.
sewith111 calls [$0.25].
buckatari folds.
maaspoort folds.
MtManVan folds.
sturgeon_nut folds.
BadbeatPhil calls [$0.15].
LeeLay checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Ac, 3h ]
BadbeatPhil checks.
LeeLay checks.
VJT123 checks.
sewith111 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
BadbeatPhil bets [$0.75].
LeeLay folds.
VJT123 calls [$0.75].
sewith111 raises [$1.50].
BadbeatPhil calls [$0.75].
VJT123 calls [$0.75].
** Dealing River ** [ Qs ]
BadbeatPhil bets [$5.25].
VJT123 folds.
sewith111 raises [$10.50].
BadbeatPhil is all-In.
sewith111 is all-In.
sewith111 shows [ 5s, Jc, 5d, Jh ] a full house, Fives full of threes.
BadbeatPhil shows [ As, 3s, 7h, Ad ] a full house, Aces full of threes.
BadbeatPhil wins $0.65 from side pot #1 with a full house, Aces full of threes.
BadbeatPhil wins $47.70 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of threes.
There was no qualifying low hand.

The very small EV I lost by giving a low draw a free card (they were calling anyway, but I mean the EV if they called and didn't hit), I made up multiple times by someone catching one of four outs on the turn, and paying me off. He felt safe; I hadn't raised preflop, I hadn't bet the flop. If some one has A3 in this spot the money is going in anyway, because they're going to raise later streets for me. If they don't, a free card is precisely what you want to give.

With 7 players in the hand such turns are expected, not rare.
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