Please evaluate

[microbet]

I didn't address that because it's too hard.

There's so much money in the pot. I guess I would think it's very unlikely that he leads out like that with an ace high flush, so you have a lot of outs if he's ahead and if he's going with just the As, you are ahead. There are also some crazy chances like you are way ahead of a ten or a PP under ten, or even a total bluff at a scary flop.

As for whether you should call or push, he's very unlikely to fold to your raise, but it is a small possibility. If he has a made hand and no spade he will put you all in eventually if no more spades come, but he might fold if another spade hits and you bet, so push, I guess.

[microbet]

It's a $5. Have you played $5s? 22 could do this. 67s could. 67o could. Really.

I know he didn't originally say it was a $5, but how do so many people limp and then call a big raise?

it is full of retards...i am gonna move outa this site for onething and go to somewhere else.. I am playing on royal vegas but with so many retards its hard to play well...lol -- i am going to go to full tilt and start with 10$ sng.......

well the results are

I pushed ( knowing a call was coming )
Villian had KK.. giving him trips
turn 4s....made my flush
river 10-----he made a boat.. :{

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
it is full of retards...i am gonna move outa this site for onething and go to somewhere else.. I am playing on royal vegas but with so many retards its hard to play well...lol -- i am going to go to full tilt and start with 10$ sng.......

[/ QUOTE ]

hello, pot calling, its looking for a mr. kettle

what are you trying to say?

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a $5. Have you played $5s? 22 could do this. 67s could. 67o could. Really.

I know he didn't originally say it was a $5, but how do so many people limp and then call a big raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

he didnt say it was a $5, but ive seen all sorts of crazy stuff happen at the 55s that this could easily be one

and yes, he could do this w/22. 67s. 67o. how much do i want to pay to guess that he's doing this for [censored] and giggles? seriously, im going to assign a reasonable range for him to be raising out of the blinds pf and basically betting all-in on the flop - and that doesnt include 22 and 67o. just because youve seen one drunk guy mess around in the 5s doesnt mean im going to be calling this hoping this is the one time it is him.

[async]

[ QUOTE ]
fold when getting over 5-1 in pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not getting 5:1 pot odds, you're getting about 2.8:1 (based on your description, pot is around T720 on flop, he bets T400, so you must call T400 against T1120, which is 2.8:1).

Let's assume for a moment that regardless of what comes, whether you call or push, the rest of the chips are going in. So really, assume you're being asked to call 850 against a pot of 1570. That's offering you 1.85:1 to call. This means for this to be a call, you must be 35% or better to win against villain's range.

Here are your chances against possible villain holdings (your win rate is shown). I'm going to list the likelihood of his holding, in my estimation. (note that in a lot of cases, like AA, it matters what suit his cards are, so in this case, the As hand represents "any AA with As" and the non-As hand represents the other combinations. Obviously, it's about 50/50 if he had AA for him to have As, since I don't necessarily think AsAd bets it any differently than AcAh on the flop)

KhKd: 43% [16%]
AsAh: 24% [16%]
AcAd: 54% [16%]
AsJc: 7% [15%]
QdQh: 43% [ 2%]
TcTd: 45% [ 5%]
AsKc: 28% [ 8%]
AdKc: 56% [22%]

So your total odds are:

(.43*.16)+(.24*.16)+(.54*.16)+(.07*.15)+(.43*.02)+ (.45*.05)+(.28*.08)+(.56*.22)

Or 38% to win against the hands the way I've identified them, which if you assume all the chips ARE going into the middle, means this is +EV if you were heads up.

However, these calculations only really tell you how you do against the pf raiser. The problem is, you have a *lot* of other people in the pot. What kind of hands like to limp and call raises? Certainly, aces you'll see plenty of. Therefore it is, I'd say, quite probably that the As is out. Heck, on a pure "number of cards basis", there are 10 cards in hands that are not yours out of 47. That means even in a purely random distribution, 21% of the time the As is out. Assuming that people tend to fold hands with aces a lot less often, I'd say the real odds are at least 33% of not more. Let's say he's holding KK, but someone out there has As2d. Your odds against KhKd, for example, fall from 43% to win, to 19%. Against AcAd, which you were over 50% to win against, your chances fall to 23%. I think we can discount at least 15-20% of your win rate because of this effect, meaning your "real" odds of winning are something closer to 31%.

I think your fold equity stinks here, because with all those limpers and callers, you're obviously in a loose game.

So, all in all... I'd say no, it's a fold postflop also.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
what are you trying to say?

[/ QUOTE ]

i believe you said this earlier

[ QUOTE ]

this is a 5$ buyin sng.. players starting hands are crap

[/ QUOTE ]

which i find great because you are so adamant about not discussing your pre-flop play, which is key to avoiding these very marginally -EV to very -EV situations post-flop

when i said i was getting 5-1 i meant calling the raise preflop...now the question was would you push/call/fold postflop w/ the number off outs i had...by looking at pot odds i didnt see how i could..but then again maybe some of you knew he was gonna boat on the river..

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
but then again maybe some of you knew he was gonna boat on the river..

[/ QUOTE ]

ha ha ha, why yes, ignore the confusing numbers and paragraphs above that give a nice detailed analysis