Please evaluate

3rd hand into sng.. all players unknown

Hero has button with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

all players near even in chips (around 1k) blinds are 10/20

utg - fold
call
fold
call
fold
call
fold
HERO -calls
SB - limps
BB (villian) -raises to 120

Everyone calls
so my pot odds are very nice

flop
10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks
Villian bets 400
folds to me.....(i have around 850 now.. easy push ? or lay it down.... flush draw, mid pair, open ended straight draw......

please advise

Fold preflop
!!!

[MikeSmith]

FOLD PREFLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!

fold when getting over 5-1 in pot odds?

well what about the post flop? what there?

[yvesaint]

fvck pot odds you have JQo and look, now you put in 120 chips pre-flop with JQo

and post flop this looks pretty but in retrospect your hand sucks. might as well just hold the Js here, as his range is AA-TT, AK-AJ probably with the As

[microbet]

Your analysis is pretty good and it's right to be harsh about the preflop play AND nice job with 'fvck' (Is it considered bad to try and get around the censor? It shouldn't be. We're, well er most, well many of us are adults.), but looking at the crazy action preflop this is a table full of thrill seekers and the villian's range is much wider.

[async]

[ QUOTE ]
fold when getting over 5-1 in pot odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not getting 5:1 pot odds, you're getting about 2.8:1 (based on your description, pot is around T720 on flop, he bets T400, so you must call T400 against T1120, which is 2.8:1).

Let's assume for a moment that regardless of what comes, whether you call or push, the rest of the chips are going in. So really, assume you're being asked to call 850 against a pot of 1570. That's offering you 1.85:1 to call. This means for this to be a call, you must be 35% or better to win against villain's range.

Here are your chances against possible villain holdings (your win rate is shown). I'm going to list the likelihood of his holding, in my estimation. (note that in a lot of cases, like AA, it matters what suit his cards are, so in this case, the As hand represents "any AA with As" and the non-As hand represents the other combinations. Obviously, it's about 50/50 if he had AA for him to have As, since I don't necessarily think AsAd bets it any differently than AcAh on the flop)

KhKd: 43% [16%]
AsAh: 24% [16%]
AcAd: 54% [16%]
AsJc: 7% [15%]
QdQh: 43% [ 2%]
TcTd: 45% [ 5%]
AsKc: 28% [ 8%]
AdKc: 56% [22%]

So your total odds are:

(.43*.16)+(.24*.16)+(.54*.16)+(.07*.15)+(.43*.02)+ (.45*.05)+(.28*.08)+(.56*.22)

Or 38% to win against the hands the way I've identified them, which if you assume all the chips ARE going into the middle, means this is +EV if you were heads up.

However, these calculations only really tell you how you do against the pf raiser. The problem is, you have a *lot* of other people in the pot. What kind of hands like to limp and call raises? Certainly, aces you'll see plenty of. Therefore it is, I'd say, quite probably that the As is out. Heck, on a pure "number of cards basis", there are 10 cards in hands that are not yours out of 47. That means even in a purely random distribution, 21% of the time the As is out. Assuming that people tend to fold hands with aces a lot less often, I'd say the real odds are at least 33% of not more. Let's say he's holding KK, but someone out there has As2d. Your odds against KhKd, for example, fall from 43% to win, to 19%. Against AcAd, which you were over 50% to win against, your chances fall to 23%. I think we can discount at least 15-20% of your win rate because of this effect, meaning your "real" odds of winning are something closer to 31%.

I think your fold equity stinks here, because with all those limpers and callers, you're obviously in a loose game.

So, all in all... I'd say no, it's a fold postflop also.

when i said i was getting 5-1 i meant calling the raise preflop...now the question was would you push/call/fold postflop w/ the number off outs i had...by looking at pot odds i didnt see how i could..but then again maybe some of you knew he was gonna boat on the river..

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
but then again maybe some of you knew he was gonna boat on the river..

[/ QUOTE ]

ha ha ha, why yes, ignore the confusing numbers and paragraphs above that give a nice detailed analysis