Two limpers pair their door

[peritonlogon]

I think it means, "I don't want to fold this hand even though I fear I'm beaten. I've got a set."

The more I think about it, the more I think this is a raise or fold spot, leaning to fold. I think calling could be a serious error. It's probably barely a marginal call, and you could be drawing dead (It's not out of the question that one of the aces is in one of their hands, nor is it out of the question that one of them (maybe the 44 was slow playing rolled up trips.) It seems very unlikely to me that niether of them have trips. And if on the next round, you brick, and one of the paired door cards folds, you now only lose if only a set sticks around. I guess my reasoning you can't use a sim to determine your equity, and make a relyable guess at your effective odds for a slightly + EV call and assume both pairs will stick around till the end. If only one of them has a set and the one without folds on the next round, you're in trouble. And this is a spot where you really can't predict how the betting will go on later rounds.

[blumpkin22]

Exactly. This reminds me of the hand in TOP where Hero has hidden trip 7s, but is facing a bet from open aces and calls from open kings and open queens. Obviously the trip sevens cannot possibly be good.

The scenario here is a little different, since you still have 3 cards to improve to a better hand than trip fours or fives. And from a calculation in a previous post, it might is +EV to call down and try to fill up with the 4 outs.

But this assumes both of the other players stay in and it is only one bet on every street. So notice that the 4s are calling and are pretty sure that you have a pair of aces next to act. Highly unlikely that he has worse than three of a kind. Consequently, as was mentioned, you can not assume one bet and three players per street. Perhaps the trip fours will catch a five and raise knowing it is less likely his opponent has trip fives, and he wants the aces to pay to suck out. Perhaps the fives will give up and realize the guy has trip fours and just check/fold fifth street.

These factors are very important to consider when weighing the possibility of having to pay many bets when you could be in pretty bad shape.

[jason_t]

Is another factor is the possibility that the trip fives could get tricky and check/raise the trip fours?

[Bartholow]

Why not 4 cards to improve?

At any rate, I still think I call 4th. Part of it is still that in that game I don't see people limp small (split) pairs often; if they have small pair good kicker they'll raise if anything. But more importantly, I think your implied odds are really good when you do boat (unless you follow periton's thinking and put one of them on quads). And I don't think one of them folding ruins your odds. Nor do you have to call later if things get uglier (for instance, if the fives check and the fours bet on 5th, I might fold due to it increasing the likelihood that the fours have trips AND possibility of checkraise - then again I might decide to call again).

[blumpkin22]

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Why not 4 cards to improve?

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In the game I play, after the first four cards you get three more, making seven total.

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At any rate, I still think I call 4th. Part of it is still that in that game I don't see people limp small (split) pairs often; if they have small pair good kicker they'll raise if anything. But more importantly, I think your implied odds are really good when you do boat (unless you follow periton's thinking and put one of them on quads). And I don't think one of them folding ruins your odds. Nor do you have to call later if things get uglier (for instance, if the fives check and the fours bet on 5th, I might fold due to it increasing the likelihood that the fours have trips AND possibility of checkraise - then again I might decide to call again).

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Do you always pay off players when they pair their door?

I don't think your implied odds are that good if you hit the Ace. I suppose the Nine has good implied odds, but still. What hand does 44 have after calling a double bet from 55 that is not trips? Unless I have a read on him as somewhat retarded...

[peritonlogon]

plus, one of the paired door cards may have limped and called with the hidden aces and the intention of isolating the ace on 4th, and then found himself also with aces up but facing a probable set. This doesn't happen every day, but it has happened to me a few times (in fact i've been in all the spots before: having the higher aces up against a set, lower aces up and having the set against 2 aces up.)

[nate1729]

I'll disagree with most here and say this is a pretty clear fold. You're likely behind and suffering from a huge information defecit.

If you assume that you'll win if you fill up, then you seem to me to have the odds to call to the river regardless of what you think the others have. For the sake of argument, assume that at least the fours have trips, so you need to improve to win.

To get to the river should cost 3BB ,in a pot which should be approximately 13BB. So you have to put in a little under 25%, for almost a 30% chance of winning, given that your 9s and Aces are both fully live. There will also be more bets on the river if you fill, which I haven't included. It therefore seems to me that you have to go to the river unless you have very good reason to think that 9s full will not win this pot.

[peritonlogon]

I disagree with your analysis for a few reasons.

1)I think, if you're going to call 3BB you need to call 4BB unless someone makes trips on board. Since at that point you're getting, (maybe) 14 or 15 to 1

2)You can't assume you'll get that many bets because someone could fold.

3)A full house doesn't win every time because someone could or (or could have already) hit quads (if they both have trips and trips only, each, not both, will hit quads about 7.5% of the time so about 1/6 of the time you catch you lose, 30% *.85 =25.5%.)

4)This Hand is liable to be played out very unpredictably with check-raises and reraises. Lets say 55 checks 44 bets Hero calls, 55 raises..... your 25% pot equity could get expended in 1 round.

5)The pot is pretty small right now, just the antes and a few small bets.

6)If you lose an out or two on the way, you could be in a Really disasterous spot where: You could fold the best hand or call while drawing dead or nearly dead.

Indeed, some or all of what you have said is possible. However, things could also be better.

Some other reasons to play:

1. OP suggested that there was a reasonable chance that neither player had trips, and you would therefore have the best hand. If neither has trips then your equity would be very high - well over 0.5 on twodimes on various different possible hands.
2. If you do improve, then you could get a raise or two in if one of the others does have trips or makes some other hand.
3. I deliberately didn't include money that could be made on the river, to try and counteract some of the other possibilities.

Of course the hand could get worse, and merit a fold later on, but this can happen to any hand. I agree that someone may fold if they're playing a pair and a draw hand, for example, or there may be some raising. While you wouldn't want either of those to happen if you're sure you're drawing, I wouldn't be upset to see (especially) the 4s fold. Then you could well have the best hand.

The point I was trying to make is that there is a case for calling (and I accept it is quite close) even if you are sure at least one opponent does have trips. I would certainly call the river for 1 bet on the evidence available.