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#11
08-13-2005, 06:39 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You do realize that your position is completely contradicted by math, right? [/ QUOTE ] This is just plain wrong! The math dictates that a fraction of winning players will experience such downswings, not that it is to be expected! [/ QUOTE ] Even if you're right, which I don't think you are but I also don't really care, how would the math say that? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, I honestly can't think of a statistical test that could yield the conclusion you've formed. Is there some predetermined number of hands each player plays in their lifetime? Are poker hands not independent? I just don't see how you came up with what you're saying. 
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#12
08-13-2005, 06:52 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
You do realize that your position is completely contradicted by math, right? Not to mention myself and several others I know who have had at least one 300+ BB downswing while playing easily winning poker, if not our A game. [/ QUOTE ] Show the math.
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#13
08-13-2005, 07:09 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
Even if you're right, which I don't think you are but I also don't really care, how would the math say that? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, I honestly can't think of a statistical test that could yield the conclusion you've formed. Is there some predetermined number of hands each player plays in their lifetime? Are poker hands not independent? I just don't see how you came up with what you're saying. [/ QUOTE ] The math is something like a 5% ROR for a 1BB/hr player with a 300BB bankroll. I don't call 5% normal! Let me put it another way: If a winning player experiences a 300BB downswing which is more liekly? 1) that he experience a statistically normal occurence. 2) that the player was tilting, playing with better players than normal or that the player was only a marginally winning player to begin with. My beef in this thread is with those who claims it is a NORMAL occurence. I believe we are doing readers of this forum a disservice with this clam.
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#14
08-13-2005, 07:12 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
The math is something like a 5% ROR for a 1BB/hr player with a 300BB bankroll. I don't call 5% normal! [/ QUOTE ] You're more likely to have a 300 BB downswing than go broke with a 300 BB bankroll.
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#15
08-13-2005, 07:16 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The math is something like a 5% ROR for a 1BB/hr player with a 300BB bankroll. I don't call 5% normal! [/ QUOTE ] You're more likely to have a 300 BB downswing than go broke with a 300 BB bankroll. [/ QUOTE ] Huh?
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#16
08-13-2005, 07:19 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
i think it's interesting how ray zee and david sklansky can basically disagree on something like this. cause it was david who threw the 300 bb downswing thing out there in the first place.
ive figured it out and basically you have to play 700,000 hands before you truly know what your win rate is.
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#17
08-13-2005, 07:20 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You're more likely to have a 300 BB downswing than go broke with a 300 BB bankroll. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? [/ QUOTE ] To go broke with a 300 BB bankroll, you will almost always have to have a downswing >300 BBs. Example: If you win 20 BB when you start, you have to go on a 320 BB downswing to go broke. OTOH, you can never go broke with a downswing < 300 BBs.
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#18
08-13-2005, 08:07 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The math is something like a 5% ROR for a 1BB/hr player with a 300BB bankroll. I don't call 5% normal! [/ QUOTE ] You're more likely to have a 300 BB downswing than go broke with a 300 BB bankroll. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? [/ QUOTE ] If you're confused by his statement and the fault in your original re: RoR, you should just stop. GoT
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#19
08-13-2005, 09:19 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Even if you're right, which I don't think you are but I also don't really care, how would the math say that? I'm not trying to be sarcastic, I honestly can't think of a statistical test that could yield the conclusion you've formed. Is there some predetermined number of hands each player plays in their lifetime? Are poker hands not independent? I just don't see how you came up with what you're saying. [/ QUOTE ] The math is something like a 5% ROR for a 1BB/hr player with a 300BB bankroll. I don't call 5% normal! Let me put it another way: If a winning player experiences a 300BB downswing which is more liekly? 1) that he experience a statistically normal occurence. 2) that the player was tilting, playing with better players than normal or that the player was only a marginally winning player to begin with. My beef in this thread is with those who claims it is a NORMAL occurence. I believe we are doing readers of this forum a disservice with this clam. [/ QUOTE ] Its very simple. Let's pretend for a second that we find 100 players on this forum who all have a 1BB/hr win rate and their SD is such that a 300BB bankroll gives them a 5% risk of ruin. Lets also assume that they never tilt, always play in games where they are theoretically a 1BB/hr winner, and never cash out. Lets say these 100 players start playing 30/60 today with a 300BB bankroll. About 5% of those players will experience a downswing of 300BB or more and lose their entire bankroll. You are right that it is not normal, but it MUST happen to a small minority. If you deny this you just have to throw statistics and probability right out the window. Even among the 95% who do not go broke, its stands to reason that if they keep playing long enough they too will be the unfortunate ones who go through the 300BB downswing. Even if we have an event that has a very low probability, over a very large number of trials it is likely to happen. There will also be a percentage of lucky souls who never run that bad. Now in the real world it probably happens less often because people tend to move down in limits in order to preserve their bankroll. That said, I agree with you and Ray Zee that most (but not all) of these downswings are due to something other than variance. I know that people make mistakes when multitabling and sometimes they don't even realize that they made them. I personally have had a downswing of over 300BB and recently 200BB. I can honestly say that in both cases my play was affected by running bad and maybe 20% of those BB were due to poor play. It is also possible that I am a mediocre player and my bankroll requirements are much larger than 300BB. So in short, just because a real (not caused by bad play) 300BB downswing is not "Normal" that doesn't mean that it is not expected to happen to many of us at some point. With the hundreds of winning players who frequent this forum, it is inevitable that it is happening to a few of them at any point in time and it is also almost inevitable that they will come on here and bitch about it.
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#20
08-13-2005, 09:34 AM
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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
Max, I think you put it very well and I think your post supports my position: that a 300BB downswing is not a normal occurence that most of us should expect to experience even if we play optimally.
I have never denied the possibilty. I just think that it has become to common place on this forum to dismiss big downswings as normal fluctuation. This is just giving players an excuse to not examine their game when they are running bad.
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