Me vs Scotty Nguyen

[LLKOOLK1]

Fnord_too broke it down perfectly. You gave scotty the odds to make this call from the outset of the hand. The board painted a pretty clear picture that his queens were probably the best hand, and the overbet on the river soldified that.
I know it was said by one of the other posters as well....this is scotty nyguen....not much is going to get by him. It wasnt a fantastic call, just simply a hand that you played exactly how he would have liked you to play it. I really like a strong bet on the flop.

[sdplayerb]

so you should risk 9K to win 2K or so?
Brilliant.
He easily could be slowplaying a big hand.

[PokerForMath]

Awesome post, my friend. Great analysis. I completely agree with it. I would add that Scotty also had more to gain from being right than to lose from being wrong. He was running good, fully of confidence (he made a big laydown earlier and lost half his stack but got pocket fives and then a set to win a huge pot only 1/2 hour later. He told me "I never worry, I always know I am coming back."). He figures if he picks me off, great, if not, he still has tons of chips, and, well he is running good.

[Iconoclastic]

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so you should risk 9K to win 2K or so?
Brilliant.
He easily could be slowplaying a big hand.

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By your logic why raise KK against Scotty? After all he easily could be slowplaying aces. Without a specific read you're just playing scared.

Winning more than a fifth of your stack is significant, especially when KJs stands a good chance against a random hand. About 80% of the time Scotty'll fold anyways, especially against someone who he doesn't think will outplay him.

[PokerForMath]

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not to sound rude but are you honestly a better player than him? If not, why are u trying to put a move on him with nothing. It seems the correct line would be to trap him putting a move on you when you have a good holding.

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Well, of course realistically we have to go with Scotty on the who is better front, but that didn't figure into my thinking. At the time I thought that he had a marginal hand (I was right) and therefore would fold (I was wrong). I would say that my analysis of the situation left out a couple of critical elements which were pointed out above. The elements of any play are (a) what does your opponent have, (b) what does he think I have, and (c) what will he do with this info. I did not spend enough time on (b) and (c), clearly. Had I, I would have thought "I know he probably has a weak hand, and he is probably thinking that I missed. If I make a big bet he will think that most likely I am making a move, but maybe I have a big hand, but he only needs to be right 1 in 3 times to make this a profitable call considering losing the call won't cripple his stack. Moreover, he likes to call big bets because it improves the chances that he won't get bluffed at, especially if he picks off my bluff. Chances are not good this bluff will succeed."

How's that?

[i wanna be me]

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Winning more than a fifth of your stack is significant, especially when KJs stands a good chance against a random hand. About 80% of the time Scotty'll fold anyways, especially against someone who he doesn't think will outplay him.

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um........ok

am I the only one that thinks this is absurd logic?

[mts]

well, the math obviously implies that it isn't, that's if his percentage is correct. The only part i can see being absurd is commenting on what scotty is thinking.

[i wanna be me]

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well, the math obviously implies that it isn't, that's if his percentage is correct. The only part i can see being absurd is commenting on what scotty is thinking.

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sorry - I was meaning the "pushing cause 1/5 of your stack is significant and scotty will fold 80% of the time" line. Why not bet like 1200 instead of pushing?

[PrayingMantis]

I dont think you have to be Scotty Nguyen in order to make this river call here. IMO you played this hand in a way that makes is pretty easy to put you on a hand Q8 beats, that's without even having any specific read on you from previous hands, which I'm sure SN had.

If you're going to make moves like these, thay have to be much more believable (i.e, following through, which you didn't make on the flop, raising more PF, etc). And it is defintely -EV to pull them against a top pro. Also, Don't be so sure he will call you here if you take EXACLY the same line with some hand that beats his, because no doubt he is good enough to sense the difference.

[2005]

I'm presuming this is a joke?

Gavin