JJ against a TAG

[Fat Nicky]

Villain in the hand is a TAG.

Pretty straightforward, just want to know if anyone lays this down at any point.

Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.70 BB

[mistrpug]

I know that I personally cannot lay this down on the turn, but I think that might be the right thing to do. There aren't many possible hands out there that you are ahead of (TT, AK with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] maybe).

[rewt75]

I agree...I'd probably fold the turn as there are more hands that a TAG would 3-bet with that beat you than you're ahead of.

I had a hand like this last night with JJ where my PF raise with 3-bet. Flop came 223. Villan bet out and 3-bet my flop raise and there was another fish calling the whole way. I didn't improve on the turn(blank) and he still bet into me. The river was a 2 which put a potential boat out there. Villain flipped over AKs and the fish had nothing. I threw a cat across the room but still felt alright about the turn fold. I had just sat down at the table and this was my second hand with no reads on anyone and my second night playing $2/$4. Ah well.

[scotnt73]

no way can you fold this. you played it perfect imo. you prob lost but do not fold an overpair. there would have to be a bet and a raise in front of me to even consider it and then id still prob pay it off. a tag would play all kinds of hand that you beat here as well.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree...I'd probably fold the turn as there are more hands that a TAG would 3-bet with that beat you than you're ahead of.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're also getting effective odds of close to 6:1 to call him down. I would think that you're ahead more than 1 in 7 times here.

Any math guys want to help explain how to factor in the odds of him drawing out with overcards when you actually are ahead?

[Fat Nicky]

Villain showed AA of course.

My basic question is whether it's profitable to call this down in the long run or can I be so sure I'm up agaiast a higher pair that I can fold the turn???

[BigDan9]

I think one other big reason for feeling confident that you'll win with that hand often enough for it to be profitable is that the villain didn't raise immediately, pre-flop. Obviously, it depends on the kind of game you're in and that particular villain's style, but a lot of TAGs wouldn't risk a check-raise attempt failing with AA or KK. Which means it's more likely your opponent will have worse than that...