AA from blinds with threatening flop

[wgarvin]

Short-handed Party 15/30. 5am. Not relevant, but one likes to set the scene.

Game looseish but not wild.

2 players fold.
Button bets.
SB folds.
Hero in BB decides to call not raise.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Button bets. Hero calls.

This bet - call sequence is repeated on the turn, which brings 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

And on the river, which brings 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Is the flaccid calling down strategy of the BB holding AA justifiable? What other lines are recommended? Grateful for any thoughts.

[vector2]

I'm relatively sure there's not a single way to play this hand and miss more bets than you did. Even though the vast majority of people would three-bet preflop, the whole point of slowplaying if you're going to choose to do so is to gain an extra bets on later rounds. With AA on a flop like this heads-up and shorthanded, there's absolutely no way you're folding this hand unless your opponent has only played 2 hands in 5 orbits. You should've three-bet preflop, bet out on the flop, perhaps check-raised the turn, and bet the river.

It's possible you posted this hand because your opponent had KQ, KJ, QJ etc and you want to demonstrate that your action saved you bets in this instance, but keep in mind that that you're going to lose far more bets over the long run than save bets by playing AA like you did.

[wgarvin]

No doubt you are correct.

But I am not sure it is quite so clear. (Put to one side the uninteresting question whether it is reasonable to slowplay preflop.)

Obviously I rate to be ahead most of the time. But when I am ahead (i.e. other player holds Kx Qx Jx or a bust) is he not going to fold to a check raise on the turn most of the time, looking at this flop? In that event one big bet has been lost. When I am behind I am short of outs, and could not lay down AA even in the face of a 3bet turn etc - so I lose a lot of bets.

[vector2]

The point is that you're going to be ahead a much larger amount of the time than you think, even when you get three bet on the turn. Another reason you should three-bet preflop is for information. He could really be raising with any two cards preflop, but if you three-bet and he caps, this narrows it down significantly. If he happens to have Kx or Qx with a strong kicker, there's absolutely no way he's going to lay down his hand to a check-raise on the turn unless he's a very weak player or he has tremendous respect for your raises. Most likely you will get that extra bet on the turn and a bet on the river if he has top or middle pair. Plus, if he has a 10 in his hand, you will be making him pay to hit his straight.

Having AA shorthanded and never folding is almost the equivalent to never folding a set in a full ring game. Both are +++EV plays. Against any random hand on that flop, AA is going to win 84% of the time. Against AK, AQ, QT, or KT you're going to win 70-75% of the time and tie 17% of the time. Against KQ or QJ, you're still going to win a little over a third of the time. Odds are you have his hand dominated. If he three-bets the turn, you should just call or cap depending on the read you have and the line thus far. If the river happens to put a low pair on board, you've probably counterfeited his two pair and should bet into him. The final word: If you play this passively against good players short-handed, you're going to get eaten up. A strong player will milk you for maximum worth when he has you beat and get free cards off of you when he doesn't.

[JasonP530]

Uh. Checkraise turn if youre not going to reraise preflop. THe only way you shouldnt reraise preflop is if youre trying to portray that type of image that will last throughout your shorthanded game. If not, then blast away preflop.