WPT Championship Event hand

[A_PLUS]

Fnord,

I agree that a set isn't completely unlikely. But Im not sure you can say it is likely either. Thats the problem. There is apx 67K in the pot 39 to call. So the question is....how "likely" is it.

I think it is a valid point about deep stack play. We may be missing something here. Could the button intentionally be playing KKK, QQQ like this with the hope of doubling? We have to admit it is a possibility as well. The fact that most of us agree "not betting a set from the button on the flop", and "not reraising KK from the button on the flop" are generally poor plays, maybe it was a calculated risk by a deceptive player.

I am still not advocating a definite fold here. What about styles? Would you consider your own playing style at this stage of the tourney? Suppose you are a hyper-aggressive player. Do you make this call?

[chuddo]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I have learned something from this thread. Semibluffing all-in is a huge winner against the typical small-winner straightforward playing internet tourney player. Against big fish or tourney pros, I'm still not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

the most obvious thing to be learned from this thread is of course don't be putting yourself in this spot with KQo in the first place.

but i think if that that is what you take from this thread, then i welcome any opportunity you would make this semi-bluff after i raised the 3500 to 10k. because i would be beating you into the pot with 2nd set here, and laugh as i say "well played, good luck on your draw buddy".

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]

the most obvious thing to be learned from this thread is of course don't be putting yourself in this spot with KQo in the first place.

but i think if that that is what you take from this thread, then i welcome any opportunity you would make this semi-bluff after i raised the 3500 to 10k. because i would be beating you into the pot with 2nd set here, and laugh as i say "well played, good luck on your draw buddy".

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this post was pretty worthless.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As an aside, I wonder how many people would fold bottom set given this exact same sequence of events?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if I give the guy 55 instead of KQ I bet more people call, even though it is probably a worse call because a set of kings or queens is much more likely now.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty funny, isn't it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I claim no expertise here, but wouldn't the liklihood of KQ go WAY up if you gave hero 55? Though it might seem strange for button to check the flop from the button with KQ, hero did it from one off the button...

[Mike Gallo]

Paluka,

I think I came across a post of yours in the mid high no limit forum where you posted a hand and reversed the roles. You posted the hand from the villians perspective. I think I see it now.

Did you have the button with a hand like AQ or AJ suited and make a semi bluff all in and get called by KQ?

Semibluffing all-in is a huge winner against the typical small-winner straightforward playing internet tourney player. Against big fish or tourney pros, I'm still not sure.

I think it splits down the middle. I would call the in with top two two against the button, considering how the button played the hand preflop and on the flop.

Lurker Fred G Sanford and I discussed this hand at great lenght, he said he thought the player on the button could have played a set this way.

[jck8]

if the button has any hand that has KQ beat he played it strange.

checking 55 or 66 on the flop is odd poker. calling twice preflop with KK or QQ on the button is also odd.

but, with deep stacks vs quality opponents i can see the value in playing KK or QQ like this.



who is the button?

[A_PLUS]

Nokona made an interesting point.

Which is more unlikely. The button checking a small set on the flop, or the hero checking KQ?

[Mike Gallo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

the most obvious thing to be learned from this thread is of course don't be putting yourself in this spot with KQo in the first place.

but i think if that that is what you take from this thread, then i welcome any opportunity you would make this semi-bluff after i raised the 3500 to 10k. because i would be beating you into the pot with 2nd set here, and laugh as i say "well played, good luck on your draw buddy".

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this post was pretty worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

[DireWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

the most obvious thing to be learned from this thread is of course don't be putting yourself in this spot with KQo in the first place.

but i think if that that is what you take from this thread, then i welcome any opportunity you would make this semi-bluff after i raised the 3500 to 10k. because i would be beating you into the pot with 2nd set here, and laugh as i say "well played, good luck on your draw buddy".

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this post was pretty worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

As was the reply [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[hurlyburly]

Two wierd thoughts.

If you are sitting on the button here with 55 or 66, what's your expectation? What can you raise on the flop that won't be obvious and will still keep missed hands in?

3500 chips is pretty light, so give someone a chance to bet. It's an absolute beauty of a flop for a small set, and the turn brings more draws in to play, some very unlikely QQ play and you start seeing the bets you want. When the action comes back, the pot's 40% of your stack. The most likely set of hands that are left in are either folding now or paying off.

I'd push here with 66 in a heartbeat (55 I'd call down), because the pot is a great payday for that hand already, and it beats the most likely calling hands.

The other thought is how much difference does this pot make to hero? Reraise a raiser with 5th nuts and got repopped out of nowhere for his whole stack, with 39k left in the first hour. You can get eliminated here, or need to double up 30 times instead of 20 over the next couple days.

I'd need to be a lot richer than I am to call this all-in.