Fold the overpair?

Irishboy · #1 02-01-2005, 12:54 AM

UTG is a tight, aggressive player (17.6 / 11.7), MP2 is loose and hyper-aggro.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Irishboy is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Irishboy 3-bets, 1 fold, MP2 caps, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, Irishboy calls.

Flop: (17.66 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Irishboy bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, UTG+1 3-bets, Irishboy caps, MP2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Uh oh! I'm guessing UTG has a pair TT or higher. I hope it's JJ or broadway spades.

Turn: (13.83 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Irishboy bets, UTG+1 raises

Ok, no I feel at least 90% certain I am behind. The only hand I still feel good about is JJ. I seriously doubt I'm against ATs here. Check-raising the turn is a very strong play for someone who is on a AK/KQ spade-ish kind of draw...is he that tricky? ...it can't be ruled out. He has been hyper-aggro at every available opportunity in this hand and this has not been his MO thus far.

Call down or fold?

Irishboy · #2 02-01-2005, 08:11 AM

bump

stonecoldnuts · #3 02-01-2005, 08:30 AM

Call him down. Its a tough decision based on your reads, but there's enough in the pot to look him up.

ggbman · #4 02-01-2005, 10:04 AM

I think you have to call down here.

wgarvin · #5 02-01-2005, 10:06 AM

'Good' laydowns in this sort of position are why 'good' players make less on PP than they should. You are getting 9-1 on JJ, ATs, some other random PP, a flushdraw semibluff, and - horrors - a cold bluff by someone who reads you as a player who can lay down. 9-1 is ample. And you have 2 outs for good measure. Just MO.