KQs 3 handed (also posted in Probability forum)

[beekeeper]

I am cross-posting this in the probabilities forum.

I folded KdQd from the big blind three-handed recently, mostly trying to finish in the money when we were 2 small stacks against one giant stack, and the button and SB went all in. Payout structure for the tournament was 3rd place gets his buy-in back, 2nd and 1st pay 40:60 respectively from what remains (20 person tournament). With a $10 buy-in, the difference between 3rd and 2nd was about $65.

From my read on the button and the small blind I thought I would be up against an Ace and a pocket pair. I knew I had the chance to triple up, but I also thought that I would have to pair one of my cards and avoid an Ace to have a chance.

Can anyone help me figure out the probabilities of this?

Also, how do I factor in my flush draw--or how much should I have considered it when making my decision?

I felt weak folding, and that's pretty much the way the feedback has gone, but if anyone wants to share their perspective on this, I'd appreciate it. Thanks in advance.

PS: Turns out the button had an ace and the SB had pocket 7s, if that's relevant. Betting went this way: button calls, SB all-in, button calls out of turn, BB ends up folding. SB had slight chip advantage over BB.

[SheridanCat]

Check out Poker Stove for a good equity simulator.

Here's what it says:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 32.0595 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { KQo }
Hand 2: 32.0275 % [ 00.32 00.00 ] { AA, AKs-A2s, AKo-A2o }
Hand 3: 35.9130 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { JJ-22 }

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 34.9062 % [ 00.35 00.00 ] { KdQd }
Hand 2: 30.7111 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { AA, AKs-A2s, AKo-A2o }
Hand 3: 34.3827 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { JJ-22 }


</pre><hr />

You'll notice that suitedness doesn't change things much.

You don't mention stack sizes. However, given this payout structure, I can see folding if there's a chance another small stack will be knocked out and you'll move to 2nd place money.

If you are one of two short stacks and the other shortie gets in a hand with the large stack, it's perfectly proper to try to survive into second given the payout structure, in my opinion.

I think this is even more true if you actually the shortest stack. Because if you and the other short stack go out on the same hand, you'd get 3rd place money.

As you can see, the equity is very close. I don't think that edge is enough to gamble $65 on.

I'm sure someone will disagree, but I just don't see the upside of getting involved. The difference in money is smaller between 2nd and 1st than betwen 2nd and 3rd, and that skews the strategy, I believe.

Regards,

T

[beekeeper]

Thanks for the help. I'm going to run the hand through the simulator on Poker Academy Pro--but I'll check out poker stove, as that's been recommended to me a few times.

I did some math after the fact and figured that I was in better shape than I thought I was preflop, based on what I assumed my opponents were holding. However, during the play I didn't know how to factor in the fact that my hand was suited, and that I needed an Ace not to fall, so instead I based my decision on what I figured would be a race situation between the big stack and the SB, and concluded I had about a 50/50 chance of moving up $65 in the money.

I can't remember our exact stacks, but I remember that the small blind had one bb over me, and the button had about 5x what the small blind had.

I'm still ambivalent about my play because (1) I didn't play to win the tournament, and (2) I made my decision based not on my chances to win, but on the small blind's chances to lose.

[Slim Pickens]

Chip EV won't tell you what you need to know in a tournament. ICM will.

EDIT: You need to do the calculation for folding, calling-and-winning, and calling-and-losing. ICM tells you how much of the prize pool each scenario is worth. Then you can use the winning probabilities if you call from Poker Stove to get the $EV for calling overall.