#41
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Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
[ QUOTE ]
So how often do you think he has to fold for this to be profitable then? Someone said 40% but I think thats really too much. [/ QUOTE ] I estimated 40% because if he's folding that much, you're probably not going to win 65% of the hands. More like 60%, I'd guess. |
#42
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Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
I guess I did. I still have trouble folding a hand as good as AQ 4 handed to a minraise, even with another stack being so short. I also have a tough time convincing myself that the raiser will fold AJ. If he will, he'll also likely fold KQ and all pairs <88. If I adopting the attitude that I'm here to win the tournament and not just make the money I have to push here.
I think it's a wash, the lower your fold equity, the higher your showdown equity. Unless you think he's raising with an really narrow range, I see pushing as +CEV over folding. |
#43
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Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
What has +CEV got to do with it?
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#44
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Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
I call here. And fold when I don't improve on the flop. I think you'll be surprised at how often bigstack will check the flop if checked to, and bet the turn instead.
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#45
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Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
I can definitely see the value of calling, but I'm hesitant to put in 35% of my stack, when I'm gonna be folding postflop about 70% of the time.
What do u do in this situation when the flop is KQ6? If I had 1 or 2 more BBs, I would consider this. Also, I don't remember, but I think the blinds would have gone up by the next time I was in the BB, which would put me in quite a predicament. |
#46
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Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
because unless you can demonstrate that it's -$EV, that's all that matters.
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#47
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Better answer
My gut here is that if the big stack folds at least 1/3 of the time I make more in the long run by pushing than by folding. In that case I'm at worst a 3:2 dog if called and i think that's even giving his calling range too much credit.
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