What do you think of this Turn semi-bluff?

#1 10-31-2005, 12:56 PM

Sorry, I can't find the HH, but this opportunity comes up pretty often.

Villian is a TAG 17/9/2.7

PF
Hero raises UTG+2 with KJs. MP2 3 bets, BB calls.

Flop (9sb) is rags, giving me a 4 flush draw.
Hero checks, MP2 bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn (6bb) is Ao
Hero check-raises

I would at least call with my FD getting 7:1, so I'm getting 8:1 on my bluff.

cold_cash · #2 10-31-2005, 01:02 PM

You're getting 4:1 on the check-raise.

I don't mind this against the right player, but I would usually have check-raised the flop and led the turn.

aargh57 · #3 10-31-2005, 01:02 PM

This is kind of interesting. I started to write that I don't like it because you don't have very much chance of villain folding. He is a TAG though so if you're going to try a semi-bluff check/raise you would do it against a player that could release a better hand. I would still say no because I don't think villain will fold often enough to make it profitable.

aargh57 · #4 10-31-2005, 01:04 PM

Wouldn't the flop be a worse place to do this as you're giving villain better odds to call the one bet?

#5 10-31-2005, 01:05 PM

There are 7 BB in the pot and I'm putting in one more for sure, so that's 8. One more for the raise and it's 8:1, right?

#6 10-31-2005, 01:07 PM

Villian's hand range is AK-AQs or a AA-99. He's not folding either of those to a flop CR with only rags on the board. You're more likely to get 3 bet.
Since I'm in early position, there's a great chance villian is holding a big PP, not Aces. Probably around 50% of the time.

#7 10-31-2005, 01:11 PM

w 7 BB in the pot, check call is 7:1, cr is 7:2 (4:1 assuming villain calls)

#8 10-31-2005, 01:15 PM

Check-call is obligatory. The pot is essentially 8 BB to me, and if I choose to add another bet, I'm getting 8:1. That's the way I look at it anyway.

Aaron W. · #9 10-31-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I can't find the HH, but this opportunity comes up pretty often.

Villian is a TAG 17/9/2.7

PF
Hero raises UTG+2 with KJs. MP2 3 bets, BB calls.

Flop (9sb) is rags, giving me a 4 flush draw.
Hero checks, MP2 bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn (6bb) is Ao
Hero check-raises

I would at least call with my FD getting 7:1, so I'm getting 8:1 on my bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

That last sentence makes no sense to me. There are 7 BB in the pot and you are betting 2 to win it without showdown. That means you're getting 3.5:1 on your bluff. I don't think you can properly break it up in that way, especially because your extra BB leads you to a situation where you might be losing more (it's not a bluff where you can fold if you get raised).

When other villain has an ace and 3-bets it, you end up putting 3 bets in on the turn with the worst hand when you've only got a 20% chance of making your hand. Also, when villain has a hand like KK-JJ and doesn't want to fold, you put in 2 bets with the worst hand with just over a 20% chance to win the pot (you sometimes has some king outs).

Giving some PT stats does not convince me that this play works often enough. If villain is known for being able to fold hands, you've got a much different situation on your hand.

(BTW - many 9% PFR TAGs will only 3-bet JJ+, AK, and AQs against an early position raise. Since you hold KJ, we can see what the likely hand range for villain is:

AA = 3 ways
AK = 9 ways
AQs = 3 ways

KK = 3 ways
QQ = 6 ways
JJ = 3 ways

So on this basis alone, you're trailing more often than you're winning and in all cases you are at least somewhat likely going to get called down. You might want to reconsider the application of this play.

#10 10-31-2005, 01:43 PM

Assuming that hand range, say he 3 bets with AA 100% of the time and with AK 2/3 of the time. That's 9/27 or 33% of the time. My bluff then costs 1.33 BB. Getting 8:1.33, he needs to fold about 15% of the time. He holds KK, QQ, or JJ 44% of the time. So he needs to fold one of those 1/3 times. It *might* be +EV.