live hand--how good of a read do I need to fold this?

[BarkingMad]

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Think about how often you have to be wrong for raising to be incorrect

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On the turn, even if the SB folds to your raise, you are putting in 25% of all turn betting. You'll make the nut flush 35% of the time, so if the board was not paired you could pretty accurately gauge your pot equity edge to be 10% (if sb folds) or 15% (if sb calls two cold on turn). In this case, you need to ask yourself how much of that pot equity has been eroded by the pair on board. If you think the answer is less than 10% (or 15%), respectively, than raising is correct.

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Now think about how often you have to be right to call on the turn

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If we ask "how often will my nut flush be good on the river", the answer needs to be at least "6.6% of the time", getting 15 to 1 like we are here.

On the river, getting 20 to 1, you only need to be good 5% of the time to make calling breakeven.

The more I think about this, the more I think that Miles Dyson said (almost) everything that needed to be said here. The only thing he could've added was to jam the turn.