live hand--how good of a read do I need to fold this?

[BarkingMad]

Getting 15 to 1 on the turn, I think you have enough overlay to draw to the nut flush.

If UTG hit set on the flop he'd be popping the turn.

Sometimes you'll lose to BB's boat, but I think you're good often enough to make drawing profitable.

To answer your question, I think your read would have to be very, very, good.

BM

Edit: Fixed the turn odds (assuming five players in for three bets on flop; sb, bb, utg, utg+2, & you). You need to look closer at the pot sizes you posted.