Typical AK Hand

[BadVoodooX]

The way it developed, J10c, AJc or KJc can easily make a reraise semibluff of the size he did since those hands are somewhere between a 25-32% favorite to still win on the river if Bruiser has AA-AK depending on the suits he holds so a $210 semibluff into a $405 pot is fine there. Also since if Bruiser calls he is that much closer to being pot committed and his opponent is more likely to get paid off on the river in position if he hits one of his outs and it’s entirely possible Bruiser folds AK here fearing a set, KQ or AA since the board and an opponent with position has called the flop and raised the turn which frequently spells serious trouble for tptk or even AA. I think a semi bluff is not only possible but an excellent move.

I’ve toyed with the idea of overbetting too since last night but I can’t figure a scenario where it’s really an advantage since the hands here that Bruiser really dreads besides AA, KK or QQ are AKc, AJc, KJc or J10c and I don’t see any of those being folded to a $125-150 overbet with position on this flop since all of them are within 44-50% favorites against AA or AK (with no clubs) and I think overbetting is usually a sign of weakness from EP on a draw heavy board. If his opponent reads it that way and fires $400 back at him on the flop or pushes, I’d hate, hate, hate to be in Bruiser’s shoes since I think at best he's a coin flip to the semi bluff hands and at worst he's slaughtered and there's only $220 in the pot for the risk. I haven’t come up with a decent underbetting strategy either; too cheap for all the draws, I honestly think Bruiser’s making the right plays up to the river but with that Ac on the river I think it’s time to cry uncle and check/fold as much as I absolutely hate doing it and probably kick the dog afterwards for good measure.

BadVoodooX

[Ulysses]

Which better hands fold on the river? Which worse hands call? IMO, the hand was screwed up on earlier streets, though.

[theBruiser500]

Yeah Diablo, I agree my river play was bad, very unclear thinking on my part during the hand. What do you think of the earlier streets?

[cornell2005]

i would base my play on the turn on whether he is an unknown player or a known player. a known player (good also) that knows you a little bit and much more likely to pull off that turn semi bluff turn raise. i think an unknown player is much less likely, not because he necessarily is a worse player, but because he cannt tell you apart from a random internet stars player. i think (correct me if im wrong) it would be pretty reckless to attempt a turn semi bluff raise against a totally unknown utg raiser.

also, a turn semi bluff raise puts you in a horrible position in this hand. you are facing a committment decision when it gets back to you, and he knows this. so since i think a known player pulls this move more often, and it really sucks for you, i would maybe check the turn vs someone that knows you, and bet/fold vs most unknowns. that would just be a general plan.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah Diablo, I agree my river play was bad, very unclear thinking on my part during the hand. What do you think of the earlier streets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your river play is great Bruiser. Based on the way the hand played I would very easily put MP on 66 or even QQ. Your flat call on the turn makes you look like you have a draw.

That A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the river puts heavy pressure on MP1. It can make for a flush, straight and top set. Either way if you are pot committed, betting the river is right.

I do not put MP on a draw here. He's not semi-bluffing.

Lawrence

[Matt Flynn]

yup.

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed. his folding equity is way higher on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard this term before, but I don't think I completely understand it. Could you please explain the concept as it relates to this hand?

Thanks,
Jonathan

[tpir90036]

it's the % chance you put on getting your opponent to fold. either a better hand or a draw that we are giving him a shitty price on. a very simple example:

pretend that all the cards are out and you are first to act on the river and you can not possibly win when you get called. there is a $100 in the pot and you bet $50. you are risking 50 to win 100. 100:50 = 2:1. so your bluff needs to work more than one time in three to be a profitable one. so your folding equity would have to be higher than .33 to make a bluff right.

in this hand we are not sure if we have the best hand or not.... we might be betting for value... but we might not be. so when we figure out our total equity for betting/pushing we need to add up what we think our pot equity is vs. his range of hands and if we have any folding equity on top of that to come up with a price.

that's about it.... if i butchered this at all someone will correct me.

-tpir

[theBruiser500]

For those that say they like the turn play thanks but I'm embarrased to say I was trying to value bet not bluff. My thinking on the river was I hit my two pair so I have to call his bet so I better bet myself. He called and showed 68c. If I'm going to call the turn maybe I should just go all in myself. I think the players at $5/$10 NLHE are good enough to know that I commit myself by calling the turn so they wont' bluff the river??