The worst mistakes in NL are made with drawing hands

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I think the worst mistakes in no limit are seen with drawing hands. Now I like to play drawing hands like 76s and 22, but I try to play them in a cost effective manner. Every day tho, I see the worst mistakes in the world being made by beginners and unknowledgeables who over-estimate the value of a draw.

For instance, here are a few plays I've seen recently with drawing hands.

QQ raises two limpers in a tournament 15x the blind, for a total of T300. Player with Kh3h limp-reraises all-in.

6h5h raises HUGE, half his stack, 20x the BB of T30. He's reraised by AK all-in and calls.

That's just the before the flop disasters. There are a few who will do this, but the real $$ is lost on the flop or turn.

Another couple examples:

KK raises a few limpers 7x the BB. Two of the limpers, plus the BB, call. The flop is Jack high rags with two hearts. limper bets 1/2 the pot, KK raises all-in for about 6x the pot, limper calls with Qh3h.

AK raises UTG 7x the BB, only the BB calls. Flop 2 4 5 rainbow. Check, check. Turn Ko. Check, bet all-in for twice the pot, call. BB had 23o.

The flop is King high with two hearts. AK goes all-in and is called by 7h6h who has a flush draw and no pair.

The mistake I'm talking about here is calling big bets or raises with a draw, but WITHOUT the necessary pot or implied odds. Terrible, yet it happens all the time. Which of course is good, because it means there is a lot of $ to be made off of these terrible players. Frustrating when they draw out, but I'll take it anytime. The absolute worst play is to call an all-in bet with a draw. There is NO implied odds when your opponent is all-in, and calling with a 1.86:1 or 2.2:1 draw means you are taking that much the worst of it. Yet I see them call with even WORSE draws.

Now there is a correct way to play draws. I love small suited connectors or small pairs, and I even call small raises with them (except in tournaments, where I generally don't play them, this is more about ring games). You want the other player to have a big hand when you hit with your small pair or connector. [It should be noted that flush draws aren't nearly as valuable here as str8 draws, as it's far more obvious when you make a flush, so the implied odds aren't as good]. However, when the flop comes, you need to be wise about how you go about playing your draws.

One option is to semi-bluff. Say you have 76 and the flop is K 5 8 rainbow. If the pre-flop raiser bet, you MIGHT make a huge raise to try to drive him out. If he does call, you still have a 2.2:1 shot at making the str8 anyway. It's an option, but not one that I use very often. The situation needs to be right, and it helps if you know something about the bettor, namely that you know he can be made to fold.

The other option is to draw. This is often the better option. Many, many times, the raiser will make a fairly small bet on the flop. Say it's the same flop as before, K 5 8, you have 76. The raiser bets 1/3 or 1/2 the pot into you. If he's deep (has a lot of chips), and so do you, calling is the best option. Of course you need to be fairly sure you can get the needed amount of $ out of him when you hit, i.e. you need the right implied odds. It doesn't work if he makes too big of a bet, if he has too small of a stack, or if you know he'll instantly fold to any big raises. If he only has twice more left than what he bets, I'd fold. But if he has 15x more than what he bet, and I think I can get it if I hit, I'll call. Note that often times the pot odds will be far short of what's correct, but the implied odds are far more than the minimum needed.

Given what I've said in the last paragraph, there's also a defense against someone who's doing this to you. BET BIG. It's big bet poker, after all. You need to wreck the pot and implied odds of opponents who may be drawing against you. I tend to usually bet at least the pot when I have top pair, top kicker. This is especially necessary if it's a fairly coordinated two-suited board. If I have AsKs and the flop is K T 8 with two hearts, I will usually over-bet the pot to wreck the implied odds and pot odds of people with QJ or two hearts. When people call these kind of bets, they are making a huge mistake. I really think this is why I do best at big bet poker, because I hurt the odds of people drawing against me so much that I inevitably make $$, because they call so often. In ring games, I tend to prefer the draws, because they tend to do very well in loose limit games. The best hand can't bet enough to protect their hand.

Implied odds are king in big bet poker. Take advantage of them whenever you can. Wreck them for your opponents.

Comments welcome.

al

[Jimbo]

The less skilled a player is relative to his opponnents the better decision it is to go all-in either as a small underdog or in a multiway pot with a big draw. Most of the mistakes you outlined are only mistakes by the best relative players who by virtue of their talent will rarely make these mistakes. Make any sense?

[Al_Capone_Junior]

The big difference is CALLING a big bet verses MAKING a big bet with a draw. A semi-bluff has the added value of possibly getting everyone to fold. This makes it a powerful play, as long as there IS a chance everyone will fold. However, CALLING a huge bet is a terrible mistake, this much is clear.

It is true that usually only very bad players make these mistakes, but there are a LOT of very bad players playing this game. I wasn't talking about a situation where someone of my skill level is facing a world champion tournament pro.

al

[Greg (FossilMan)]

> The raiser bets 1/3 or 1/2 the pot into you. If he's deep
> (has a lot of chips), and so do you, calling is the best
> option. Of course you need to be fairly sure you can get
> the needed amount of $ out of him when you hit, i.e. you
> need the right implied odds. It doesn't work if he makes
> too big of a bet, if he has too small of a stack, or if
> you know he'll instantly fold to any big raises.

You see the big mistake here, right?

Why would you fold ANY hand if you knew that he would "instantly fold" to any big raises?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Al_Capone_Junior]

...if you know he'll instantly fold to any big raises...

Change to...

you know he'll be very unlikely to call a big raise from you and pay you off if you hit your hand.

Better?

al

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Certainly it is better, but it does lead to a very interesting dichotomy.

If you have a drawing hand, you prefer the opponent to have either a VERY strong hand, or a bluff to mediocre hand. I will admit, I sometimes call significant bets/raises on the flop for just this reason. It is not uncommon for an opponent to play a hand aggressively if they have a monster or a bluff/weak hand (that is, a hand that wants you to fold now, even if they believe they have the current best hand), while if they have a medium hand, they will be content to check it down or otherwise reach a cheap showdown.

For example, let's say the flop is T83. I am holding 97. There was some action preflop, so the pot is not tiny. An opponent bets into me for the full pot, and this is a significant bet, maybe 1/5th to 1/30th of his stack. At this point, the last hand I want him to hold is KT. The hand is strong enough that if a brick hits the turn, he will often bet the pot again, or close to it, and I might have to fold. It is not so weak that I can be sure he would fold if I raised the turn, or bet the turn myself after he checked. However, it is also not strong enough that I can be sure to get paid off if I catch the 6 or J I need for my straight. Obviously, if he might call my bluff on the turn, he might call when I hit the straight, but in both cases it is very unsure, and if he has some skill at reading me, he can make the right decision too often.

However, if he has top set, there is little chance he will muck when a 6 or J hits the turn. While he will realize I might have made the straight, he will know there is some chance I'm bluffing, and he'll have to call. Even better if he has top two pair, as he will also almost certainly not get away from the hand cheaply, and he only has 4 outs to a full house on the river instead of 10.

Similarly, if he has QT or A8 or some such, it is a hand with which he often would and probably should bet the flop. There is a good chance he has the best hand, but he is very vulnerable on the turn if he gives a free card. But, with this hand, while you won't get paid off if you hit your straight, you will often have a good chance to bluff him out of the pot on the turn or river. When you call on the flop, and a brick hits the turn, he might check behind you, and then you can buy the pot on the river. Or, if you bet into him on the turn, he will often fold. While this play requires some skill on your part at reading him, it is an extra benefit to your draw.

As others have said, every hand has some equity in the pot, even if it's only "bluffing equity".

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[DJA]

This is especially necessary if it's a fairly coordinated two-suited board. If I have AsKs and the flop is K T 8 with two hearts, I will usually over-bet the pot to wreck the implied odds and pot odds of people with QJ or two hearts. When people call these kind of bets, they are making a huge mistake.

Yah, that works great when you are ahead, but what if they out flop you. Your system is over simplified. You don't take into account the times where your top pair top kicker is behind... it sure isn't very good over betting the pot when you are in second place. So your system should take into account the abilities and tendancies of your opponent. If they are capable of putting in a lot of money when they are a 2:1 dog, then by all means push hard, but be aware of your opponents who will push back when you're behind. You have to be able to tell which opponents will bluff raise and which opponents raise with a made hand.

Just My Comments,

[Gus]

On your first example, Kh3h raising all in vs QQ. Did you see that in a Ladbrokes 10+1? ... if yes it was probably me: I actually had to leave and switch off the computer so was trying to get busted out as quickly as I could. I did a pretty good job of it [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

[fnurt]

One thing you notice is that some players think that the more you semibluff, the better you are at poker. Give them a draw on the flop and WHAM! all the chips go in the middle. ("I have two ways to win!") The problem these people make is twofold:

1) They fail to understand that not all draws are created equal. The bigger the draw, the more freely you can semibluff. If you have a really big draw like nut flush draw with two overcards you might even be the favorite to win by the river, so the risk isn't so great. The usual considerations regarding putting all your chips in on a coin flip might apply, though.

2) They fail to evaluate the likelihood that their bluff will induce a fold. This is just based on hand reading skills, knowing your opponent, etc. Trying to run an opponent off a hand he won't lay down doesn't become any smarter of a play just because you have 6 outs.

The expert says: "He will probably fold, but even if he doesn't, I have 10-12 outs on the river"

The aspiring expert says: "He might fold, you never know, and I have at least some outs if he doesn't, so let's call for Captain Semibluff!!"

No question the semibluff is a powerful play, but I think it is incredibly overused. The rails at any tournament are full of people who pushed their chips in every time they got a draw, and what's worse is, they feel like they busted out playing good poker. Just like every other play, you need to pick your spots for the semibluff.

[Erdnase]

Hi fnurt,

very good post, I fell like I learned something there.

Greets and thanks,

Erd.