satellite bubble hand

[M.B.E.]

I always find it very weird playing satellites awarding exactly two seats, because when it gets down to three players you're in the blinds 2/3 of the time, and all you care about is not being the first to go broke.

On this hand the stacks were:

SB: 6,600
BB: 8,300 (me)
button: 12,100

Blinds were 200/400, ante 25; hence the smallest stack had 16xBB, not quite desperate yet, but getting there. All three of us had been playing well, that is to say cautiously considering that two would get seats.

Button limps for 400, small blind completes, and I check with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked around.

Turn: [6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pot is 1275. SB checks, I check, button bets 800, SB folds. I have a flush draw and a double-gutshot straight draw. What's my play?

[2005]

well, I can't see folding, but be cautious on the river if a club comes off. I'd say call and bet 1500 if you make your hand on the river.

Gavin

[M.B.E.]

What do you think of checkraising all-in? Unless the opponent has a set (or 5-4 for a straight), he has no reason to risk becoming the short stack.

[HiatusOver]

One problem I see with pushing in here is that by checking twice on a draw heavy board it is gonna be tough to represent strength here, and if the guy plays good and tries to put u on a hand that beats a 9 he is gonna have a tough time. That being said, he is probably gonna fold tons of hands anyways because of the chip position and payout. Why didnt u just bet the turn? Thats what I would have done, but from reading pasts posts of yours u seem to know more about tournament poker that I do.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Why didnt u just bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
At that point the small stack was still in the hand. The small stack was the only one of us who really had an incentive to take risks, since he needed to increase his stack to win, while the other two of us just needed to avoid decreasing our stacks too much.

My first priority on each hand was trying to prevent the small stack from increasing his stack. Therefore, if the small stack is still in the hand, I want the big stack to be in the hand as well -- since hopefully the big stack can win the pot if I don't. If I had bet the turn, it might have caused the big stack to fold while the small stack called, which would have been terrible for me if I did not improve on the river.

[Che]

MBE-

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of checkraising all-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to answer this without having a read on what the villain would open-limp here. (Why do people do that?)

Is he limping marginal hands? If so, A9 is probably his strongest holding and overcards are more likely.

Is he limping any two? If so, 2 pair or the straight are possible and some wacky pair+gutshot+flush draw combo is also a real possibility in addition to 9x.

Is he trapping with AA/KK? Seems rather unlikely.

Whatever the case may be, we don't know much about the strength of the villain's hand since he really should autobet here given he has been checked to twice.

Since we have to get the villain to fold around 70% of the time to be profitable, we really don't have much room for error. I'd guesstimate that the chances of getting the seat are lower if you check-raise than if you just call (or even fold).

But you're the satellite expert, so I'll defer to you. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

[M.B.E.]

This was a satellite to the $650 WSOP qualifier on Stars.

I think the button (big stack) was correct to open-limp here with a fairly wide range of hands. He doesn't really want to play any pot heads up against either of us -- he'd much rather play a three-way pot. If the big stack raises to 1200 (3xBB) from the button, then the small stack will probably fold, but could easily reraise all-in -- it would be profitable for the small stack to do that because there would already be 1800 in the pot when his stack was only 6400, and the other two of us aren't going to call the all-in without a premium hand.

If the button min-raises there (to 800), then a very likely result would be the small stack (in the SB) folding, and the medium stack (me in the BB) calling, which is not especially desirable for the button.

So the button was not open-limping with any two, but he would open-limp with a variety of hands.

In particular, I think he'd be correct to open-limp with cards that have some chance of making the nuts or close to it -- pocket pairs, suited and offsuit connectors, suited aces, and suited kings. The reason is that later on in the hand, he will not want to call a large raise (from either of his opponents) unless he is extremely sure that he has the best hand.

[Lurshy]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of checkraising all-in? Unless the opponent has a set (or 5-4 for a straight), he has no reason to risk becoming the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why take the risk? The small stack is gone at this point. You risk going out or becoming the big stack (still no guarentee at this point). The point being you can't win on this hand.

You going all-in brings a big smile to the small stack's face.

You can close the action and see the next card without really damaging your stack. If you are concerned that some of your outs aren't live you can even get away from the hand knowing at least the small stack did not gain either.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
I always find it very weird playing satellites awarding exactly two seats, because when it gets down to three players you're in the blinds 2/3 of the time, and all you care about is not being the first to go broke.

On this hand the stacks were:

SB: 6,600
BB: 8,300 (me)
button: 12,100

Blinds were 200/400, ante 25; hence the smallest stack had 16xBB, not quite desperate yet, but getting there. All three of us had been playing well, that is to say cautiously considering that two would get seats.

Button limps for 400, small blind completes, and I check with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked around.

Turn: [6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pot is 1275. SB checks, I check, button bets 800, SB folds. I have a flush draw and a double-gutshot straight draw. What's my play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would villain semi-bluff a draw here? My guess is "no" since he's the chip-leader and doesn't NEED to take risks, even calculated ones.

Granted, I wasn't at the table but my initial reaction is that he's got a weak made hand and is just value betting this draw heavy board (K9, A9, a set-highly doubtful, overpair?). I don't see him entering a pot that would give him a made straight or two pair if the play is as cautious as you describe.

Soooo, I'd call the ~800, pray for a 4, 5, club or even a diamond that would complete your smoke and mirrors draw and fire a strong ~2,000 bet. If the river is a brick I'm done with the hand.

As I type this it feels too weak. I don't know. Interesting hand.

Pep.

[Goon2]

The pot offers 2075:800, or 2.6:1. So you need 13 outs to continue. You have at least 15 outs. Three 4s, Three 8s, nine flush cards, and your three 7s may also be outs. I think you're about 2.1:1 against a winner.

So you know you're going to call.

Should you raise? I'd be comfortable that I had 15 outs which would give me the best hand. But I am not sure I want to go over the top as a 2:1 dog, because I don't think I can get the other player to fold given the fact I didn't bet the flop. I might get called as an underdog. So I think I just call.

Then when I hit my flush or straight (I'd rather hit the straight) I can go for the kill.