AI - hold, sell or hedge?

[Sintax]

I have 11- Bo and 7- Carrie.

If I hold out, worst case (Carrie wins), is worth $700
and best case is worth $1100

If I liquidated now, its worth $850. So basically I am risking $150 to win $400 on Bo. Getting 2.7:1 on him at this point is a nice price.

Or, I could hedge, and buy 4 more Carries for $160, and take 11 each to the finals. $1100 - $160 = $940.

So in actuality, I am guaranteed $940 right now, and holding pat, I am risking $240 to win $400. Again, if Bo is the favorite, this is the best line, but how much a favorite is he (if any)? I think Bo is the best AI contestant ever, but Carrie has never been in the bottom 3, and has Simon in her back pocket... this has diminished in recent weeks, but it may be still to close to call...

Whats the best move?

[Tuco]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats the best move?

[/ QUOTE ]

Stick it in her pooper.

Sorry. Couldn't resist. Well, it depends on your risk tolerance I guess. I've got 100 Bo's and haven't sold any yet. But thats me. I'm a sick gambler.

Conclusion: Sell your Carries and ride the 2+2 Bo victory wave!!

Tuco.

[jerome baker]

did you buy the bo's on tradesports or wsex?

[Sintax]

WSEX

... but now all I can think about is Carries pooper....

[Tuco]

WSEX

Tuco.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
Or, I could hedge, and buy 4 more Carries for $160, and take 11 each to the finals. $1100 - $160 = $940.


[/ QUOTE ]

An easier way to accomplish the same thing would be to just sell 4 Bo's (he's at $61 right now). This would net you $244 and give you a guaranteed $700 in the final, for $944 total.

[La Brujita]

I am no expert but I sold my bos at 62 for the following two reasons:

1. I think it might actually be pretty close

2. I thought a decent bit of the price was driven by uncertainty of Carrie/Vonzell so I thought price might drop a bit to high fifties or so in next few days. Just one person's guess.

[IggyWH]

Selling them all right now will get you $909. So right now it's more of a 1:1 risk:reward. I'd sell off now and be happy.

[Sintax]

Thats a much better idea, thanks...

[NoChance]

If Bo is favored right now then Carrie is the one with the value. IMO this past week was the only week Bo was better than her. This opinion wont be popular around here but it's just that, an opinion.