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#21
07-23-2005, 07:19 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If villain is raising 3% of his hands, what hands are you ahead of preflop when he raises under the gun? what flops are you hoping for such that you can win a big pot against his hand range? fim [/ QUOTE ] fim - I agree with this in general... this reminds me of psuasskicker's thread on Mid-High and another one recently, I think. I'm much more inclined to dump AK preflop if I think I can't play it profitably (ie if his hand range is AA KK QQ AK) Unfortunately in this hand, Villain is 46/3 after 30 hands... how long do you wait before applying this kind of read from statistics? I usually like a little more. [/ QUOTE ] 40/3 says loose, passive. what hands do loose, passives raise with UTG? I agree that the stats don't give you enough read to be sure, but taking this line long term is a loser against any reasonable UTG raiser, even those who will be raising 56s from time to time. this is an easy fold preflop. fim 
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#22
07-23-2005, 07:51 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
is 30 hands a large enough sample size though?
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#23
07-23-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
Given his pf %, even with the small sample size, you've got to have him on AA, KK, AK or QQ. You're only beating one of those hands and it's one of the less likely.
I've got nothing wrong with seeing the flop given you're in position and you've got a small sample size. I might have bet the flop and folded to a raise or checked out to a smooth call. It was an ugly flop for you even though you hit your ace but I give up this hand because the amount of time he's got a set here is going to far outweigh the chances he's got a cowboys. In the absence of a larger sample size you've got to respect what you've seen so far. Just my opinion...feel free to shoot holes in it.
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#24
07-23-2005, 08:05 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
[ QUOTE ]
is 30 hands a large enough sample size though? [/ QUOTE ] you're making a good point, however i don't think you're seeing mine. you are correct about that not being a large enough sample size, however... when playing, you assume your opponents are not good. the default losing SSNL player is loose, passive and hates to raise unless he has a monster. with no statistics, i make this fold, in fact statistics/reads are the only thing that would make me call or raise here. you have to consider how the postflop action would go, and realize that this is a losing proposition against any sane hand range. consider this (thinking about this will make you a better player): there are instances where you could even be favored against UTG's opening range of hands and still lose money long term making this call... fim
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#25
07-23-2005, 08:30 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
[ QUOTE ]
If villain is raising 3% of his hands, what hands are you ahead of preflop when he raises under the gun? what flops are you hoping for such that you can win a big pot against his hand range? fim [/ QUOTE ] Well, as has been noted, I only have 30 hands against him, so it does not really tell me much. But even if this was after 20K hands, should I fold this? Assume a 3%-er raises AK/AA/KK/QQ/JJ. These stats support I should fold A K in this situation. But they also support I fold QQ in this situation. Can this really be right?
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#27
07-24-2005, 12:12 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Villian (UTG) is 46/3 after 30 hands and has $38. Hero is UTG+2 and covers w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Party NL50 Full ring Pre-flop UTG raises to $2, 1 folds, Hero calls, 7 fold. Flop ($4:50) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) UTG checks, Hero checks. Turn ($4:50) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players) UTG checks, Hero bets $3, UTG makes it $7, Hero folds. Is there another way to play this? [/ QUOTE ] If villain is raising 3% of his hands, what hands are you ahead of preflop when he raises under the gun? what flops are you hoping for such that you can win a big pot against his hand range? fim [/ QUOTE ] You make an excellent point; I hadn't noticed Villain's raising range. Assuming a large sample size, you could do worse than to fold preflop. I'd have a hard time not seeing a flop w/ AK, in position, for a standard opening raise, though. I guess you're hoping for a flop like - QJTr [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] or maybe A-rag-rag suited in your kicker. As for betting the flop, I admit to theoretical weakness here. Is the "no infinite odds" principle applicable here as it is in limit, or are the implied odds of deceptive action (though I fail to see how that would apply for either of you in this case; that's one scary flop) so great that it's more profitable to check behind even on a board like this? [/ QUOTE ] infinite odds is very much applicable to NL, however you should first make sure you are ahead against his range of hands before you worry about infinite odds. here he is giving you infinite odds to spike a J and maybe a K, why not take it?
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#28
07-24-2005, 12:57 PM
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Re: AK. Ugly flop.
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the flop purely for fold equity from KK or JJ, if he calls its likely he has you beat and so you go into check-fold mode. [/ QUOTE ] If you can see they are holding KK/JJ, your correct play would be check on the flop so that villain thinks he has the best hand and hands you some chips.
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