1st MTT win $30 Party... question about early FT hand

dwd · #1 10-17-2005, 04:26 PM

I just won my 1st multi yesterday. Had a 2nd and 3rd a couple months ago and the win feels much better. Here is an early hand from the final table. I had just raised to 20k the hand before and took down the blinds. No read on SB except his stats are 16 vpi/ 5 pfr from about 70 hands of data mining. Do you call here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 (t192578)
MP3 (t135081)
CO (t55874)
Button (t34211)
SB (t93688)
BB (t71910)
UTG (t121149)
UTG+1 (t58688)
Hero (t189033)
MP1 (t27788)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t20000, 5 folds, SB raises allin to t93688 , 1 fold.

DJ Sensei · #2 10-17-2005, 05:20 PM

I'd fold. While you may likely be in a coinflip situation against JJ or TT or the like, theres also a significant chance you're in bad shape against AA-QQ or AK, particularly if the villain has played tight in the past. It should be noted that you raised from EP, and he still pushed, indicating a more solid range of hands for the SB. I think the chances of you being more than a coinflip ahead (against AJ/AT/KQ or something like that) are very slim. My best read on villain's hand is AK, KK, QQ, or JJ, hands he wants to get allin before the flop (doesnt want to act OOP on a potentially scary flop, such as all rags for his AK or Axx for his pairs)

If you call and lose, you're back among the more average stacks (and thus more vulnerable to an early exit), but if you fold, you're still a strong 2nd stack, with plenty of poker left to play, and a high probability of a big finish.

AceofSpades · #3 10-17-2005, 05:23 PM

I might fold there without a read, especially cause you are ten handed and have a nice stack, but it could go either way I guess. I would call with AK though.

DJ Sensei · #4 10-17-2005, 05:28 PM

yea, AK is a totally different story. I too would call with it. AQ is a dangerous hand to get in preflop against a reraise though.

AlcateL · #5 10-17-2005, 05:30 PM

In my experience hands like this happen throughout the final table, it really depends on your stack and the opponents stack. In this situation, for half of my chips without half a read I'd fold. Most of the time you're in a coin flip scenario, but you're not getting the requisite pot odds to call and flip for half of your big stack.