$11 - Crappy AKs on the bubble

[pergesu]

As soon as I raised I thought, "Man, this could suck if he pushes."



***** Hand History for Game 2720231384 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:15781693 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Friday, September 16, 04:14:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 11047 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: dragons52467 ( $3185 )
Seat 7: EVNVTA ( $350 )
Seat 8: trebor630 ( $3240 )
Seat 9: pattywack85 ( $1225 )
Trny:15781693 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to pattywack85 [ Kc Ac ]
EVNVTA folds.
trebor630 folds.
pattywack85 raises [350].
dragons52467 is all-In [3085]

My instinct is to fold and type "Fuk U", but i honestly dont know what the correct play is. I think this either easy fold or very read dependant. You dont want to see him holding 22 here no doubt.

NP: Big Tymers - Get Your Roll On

[Kristian]

I don't think you can fold this. The small stack could hang around for a while, and this is a great chance to double up.

[psparkyuk]

[ QUOTE ]
As soon as I raised I thought, "Man, this could suck if he pushes."


[/ QUOTE ]
I wonder (and maybe the above means you do too) if the amount of the raise was wrong. Maybe a min-raise works out better when you start with around 12BB and might pass a reraise. Or just limp and be happy to get all-in preflop should he raise, or maybe trap him if he checks.

If your 350 just got called, are you going to push most flops that you miss?

Psparky

[tshort]

If you raise to 3 or 4 BBs, he will probably come over the top with most hands. Lets look at your options in relation to ICM:

1) Fold initially. You should expect 22.5% of the prize pool after this option.

2) Raise to 350 and call his all-in. Lets say he comes over the top 80% of the time. Assume you win the all-in 67% of the time. 20% of the time you expect 24% of the prize pool. 26.6% of the time you expect 0% of the pool. 53.3% of the time you expect 31% of the pool. You should expect 21.3% of the prize pool with this option.

3) Push initially. Villian then calls with 15% of hands. You win the all-in 60% of the time. 6% of the time you get 0% of prize pool. 9% of the time you expect 31% of the prize pool. 85% of the time you expect 24% of the prize pool. From pushing, you should expect 23.2% of the prize pool.

This rough math shows that open pushing is your best option considering ICM. In that situation you will rarely be eliminated from the tournament leaving you in the best possible shape to win the tournament.

Just make sure not to break things when he calls with 22.

[Edit]Assume he will come over the top with 50% of hands. Raising to 350 and folding ~ 22% of pool. Raising to 350 and calling all-in ~ 22% of pool. Regardless, raising to 350 is your worst option.

[Maulik]

AKo is too strong to fold when folded to in sb (if i'm reading this correctly). 12% is in the middle and going to be picked up with little risk. You're ahead, don't raise 3.5bb. That was the terrible. I read your posts and am certain you know better than raising 3.5bb.

[pergesu]

Yeah I know this was a brain fart. I think the thought process was "oh I have more than 10 BB, I'll just raise." Then the moment I raised it went, "If I were him I'd push any hand." Which he did. I sucked out on his 55 or 66, something like that.

But yeah, there's only one real play here, and that's to open push.

[GtrHtr]

Wow. AK is "worth" a hell of a lot more if you push PF than it is playing it this way.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
But yeah, there's only one real play here, and that's to open push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely. BTW, how low would shorty have to be for you to fold here? I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of t200 or less. At a certain point, you just have to vomit in your mouth and fold PF... Certainly not with villain at 350, but at 175 or so. Yuck.

[pergesu]

Okay so the real question here is do I fold when he puts me all-in? I'll have enough chips that I can keep playing, but I'm not in the best shape in the world.