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#21
09-12-2005, 11:29 PM
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Re: River of Death
First example is heads up, second is not. Notice the "caller" in the example.
[ QUOTE ] and the fact that he told us to "value bet" the river. [/ QUOTE ] You're right. When I initiallly made my first post, I made my mistake of saying "value bet". One side of my brain was apparently not communicating with the other. If that's one of the reasons I'm getting flak, I understand. I meant to say call, as I showed in my later post. 
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#22
09-12-2005, 11:31 PM
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Re: River of Death
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I don't think you have a lot to worry about. I bet you still have the best hand here. Now if it was a ace, I'd be more worried. Didn't Miller say in SSHE that people tend to play (and hold onto) ace-rag more often then king-rag? I could be wrong, but I'd say that this is sure value bet. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Page 198: [ QUOTE ] If the river is an overcard to your pair but does not complete a straight or a flush (e.g. you hold Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], the board on the turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and the river is the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), you should assume that you still have the best hand and bet. Except that if the overcard is an ace, you should be somewhat more concerned, as many players will automatically call to the river with ace-rag when they pair their kicker on the flop. Also, extremely poor players will call to the river with any ace, hoping just to spike that one pair. [/ QUOTE ] Page 203 (different situation, but worse): [ QUOTE ] The K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a very scary card; it puts four to a straight and three to a flush on the board. The bettor probably drew out on the river. The caller could have a queen or small flush and be going for an overcall (or just be too timid to raise). Nevertheless, you should call. You are getting 12-to-1, so you need to win only eight percent of the time to profit. The bettor might be bluffing, or he might have improved to kings up. The caller could have made two pair or a pair (or worse -- some small stakes players make ridiculous calls). Usually, you will lose. You should win more than eight percent of the time, though, so call. [/ QUOTE ] Okay, maybe you should be worried, but dammit, this is still a necessary call. Yes, I realize that the king on the river completed a possible flush, but I still stand by my line. [/ QUOTE ] You are not taking into consideration the 2 Donks behind you. I'd call here, but I suck. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#23
09-12-2005, 11:33 PM
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Re: River of Death
[ QUOTE ]
the point was an ace makes 2 pair for him... [/ QUOTE ] What ace? There's only one ace anywhere in the original posts or my examples from SSHE, and that's one of Hero's hole cards. Am I missing something else?
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#25
09-12-2005, 11:35 PM
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Re: River of Death
[ QUOTE ]
You are not taking into consideration the 2 Donks behind you [/ QUOTE ] I fully admit that I did not take that into consideration, but I would still call.
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#27
09-12-2005, 11:48 PM
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Re: River of Death
[ QUOTE ]
I'll get off your back soon [/ QUOTE ] lol I appreciate you on my back. Seriously. It gets me to really think which helps me to understand and learn. I'm not 100% sure of my reasoning, but I'm 8% sure. If my logic is flawed, so be it, but as long as there is some logic to it... [ QUOTE ] You said "Now if it were an ace, I'd be worried." or someting to that effect [/ QUOTE ] You're right. I did say that (or something to that effect). I said that because of what I understood from SSHE about people tending to play Ax to the river hoping to spike an ace for either a pair or better. Ed's reasoning is (if I'm understanding him right), that Kx is a less likely hand to be played to the river (example from page 198). I KNOW that Hero is most likely beat, but it's worth the call to find out. The more I think about it now, the potential overcallers behind kinda suck, though.
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#29
09-12-2005, 11:58 PM
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Re: River of Death
[ QUOTE ]
I'm really curious what everyone advocating a call thinks BB is holding here. He's betting into 3 opponents. Rob [/ QUOTE ] That's too advanced for me at this point. I'm still trying to learn how to do this better. I can tell you, though, assuming that the Villian plays even remotely like I used to, I would constantly bet into three opponents on later streets with a single pair (or nothing but a draw) thinking that I was "protecting my hand" or trying to bluff someone off. I was (am) dumb; maybe he is, too. EDIT: I'm gonna say K8, though.
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